Overview

Mitt Romney has retaken a significant lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, even as he has fallen further behind Barack Obama in a general election matchup. Moreover, Obama’s own job approval rating has reached 50% for the first time since last May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 7-11 among 1,503 adults, including 1,188 registered voters and 538 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Romney leads Rick Santorum, 33% to 24%, in the GOP nomination contest. A month ago, the two men were in a virtual tie (28% Romney, 30% Santorum).

But both GOP frontrunners are running well behind Barack Obama in general election matchups. Among all voters, Obama leads Romney by 12 points (54% to 42%) and Santorum by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama’s advantage among women voters, while largely unchanged from a month ago, remains substantial – 20 points over Romney and 26 points over Santorum.

Obama also holds an enthusiasm advantage over both of his main GOP rivals. In a matchup with Romney, 41% say they support Obama strongly, compared with only 28% who strongly support the former Massachusetts governor. Obama holds a commanding 45% to 28% lead over Santorum in strong support.

Republicans have a modest lead in engagement; 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they have given quite a lot of thought to the presidential election, compared with 64% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. However, this is far short of the engagement advantage the GOP held in pre-election polls in the 2010 midterm campaign.

Obama is widely viewed as likely to defeat either Romney or Santorum in November. Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (59%) say that Obama is likely to prevail if the election is between Obama and Romney; just 32% expect Romney to win. About seven-in-ten (68%) say that Obama is likely to beat Santorum, if he becomes the GOP nominee.

While overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters think that Obama will win against Romney or Santorum, Republicans are far less confident in their parties’ candidates. Just 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Romney is likely to defeat Obama. In an Obama-Santorum matchup, even fewer GOP voters (46%) predict victory; about as many expect Obama to best Santorum (43%).

The poll includes other positive signs for Obama, as well some potential vulnerabilities. For the first time since last May, significantly more approve (50%) than disapprove (41%) of his overall job performance. That is little changed from a month ago (47% approve, 43% disapprove), but in January 44% approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while 48% disapproved.

Obama’s approval rating for handling the economy also has improved over the past several months. Currently, 43% approve of his handling of the economy, while 53% disapprove. In November, 35% gave him positive marks on the economy and 58% disapproved.

Gas Prices Offset Good News about Jobs

The public’s view of overall economic news – as well as news about the job situation – has shown decided improvement since last summer. Yet perceptions of news about gas prices have taken a sharp turn for the worse.

Fully 85% say the news they are hearing about gas prices is mostly bad, which is up from 47% last November. In contrast, the percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation has fallen 26 points since November – from 64% to 38% – and stands at one of its lowest points in a measure dating back nearly three years.

The mixed perceptions of economic news have had little effect on underlying opinions about the state of the economy. The public’s rating of current economic conditions remains stubbornly negative. Nearly nine-in-ten (89%) say economic conditions are only fair or poor, a figure that has changed little over the last four years.

Economic optimism increased sharply between December and February and is unchanged since last month. Currently, 44% say they expect economic conditions in the country to be better a year from now, 14% say conditions will be worse and 38% say they will be the same.

Views of Candidates, Parties

The survey finds that the contentious Republican primary has taken a toll on the image of the leading GOP candidates. In the current survey, just 29% of Americans say they have a favorable view of Romney, while 51% say they have an unfavorable impression. In November, opinions about Romney were more closely divided (36% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable). Santorum’s image has grown much more negative in the past month alone: 27% say they have a favorable view of Santorum, while 44% view him unfavorably. In February, about as many said they had a favorable opinion as an unfavorable one (33% vs. 36%).

Obama’s personal image remains much more favorable than either Romney’s or Santorum’s. Currently, 56% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of Obama while 41% have an unfavorable view.

Moreover, while the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably than it was a few months ago, the Republican Party’s image is little changed – and remains much more negative than positive. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of the GOP, compared with 56% who have an unfavorable opinion. That is largely unchanged from January (35% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable).

Currently, 49% say they have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while 43% view the party unfavorably. In January, 43% viewed the Democratic Party favorably and 51% had an unfavorable impression.

The Democratic Party has opened a slim 44% to 39% advantage as the party better able to improve the job situation. The Democrats also are viewed as better able to represent people’s views on abortion (by 16 points), and to deal with health care (14 points), Medicare (13 points) and the nation’s energy problems (11 points).The two parties run about even on dealing with the federal budget deficit (41% Democrats, 42% Republicans).

Half of Americans (50%) say the Republican Party is more extreme in its positions; just 35% say that phrase better describes the Democratic Party. Those opinions have changed little since July. Still, about as many say the Republican Party (39%) as the Democratic Party (42%) can better manage the federal government.

Health Care Law: Two Years Later

The survey also finds that, two years after the passage of comprehensive health care legislation, the public is evenly divided over the law. Overall, 47% approve of the law, while 45% disapprove. In January 2011, 41% approved and 48% disapproved.

About half of Americans (53%) say that Congress should either expand the health care law (33%) or leave it as it is (20%); 38% favor its repeal.

However, substantially more disapprove (56%) than approve (41%) of a key provision in the law that requires individuals to have health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. This provision is at the heart of a constitutional challenge to the law, which will be heard before the U.S. Supreme Court in late March.

Opinion on health care legislation is sharply divided along partisan lines. Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of the 2010 law (84%) and the individual mandate (83%). About three-quarters of Democrats (76%) approve of the law and 66% approve of the individual mandate. Independents are divided over the health care law (44% approve, 47% disapprove), but 60% disapprove of the individual mandate.

Mitt Romney has regained the lead in the support for his party’s presidential nomination, as conservative backing for Rick Santorum has declined. Romney currently holds a 33% to 24% lead over Santorum among registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, with 20% backing Newt Gingrich and 14% favoring Ron Paul.

In mid-February, Santorum was tied with Romney overall (30% vs. 28%), and held an 11-point lead over Romney among conservative Republican and Republican-leaning voters (36% vs. 25%). Today, 25% of conservative Republicans favor Santorum for the nomination, while 31% support Romney and 22% back Gingrich.

Moderate and liberal Republicans have not changed their primary preferences over the past month, with Romney holding a consistent lead among these voters.

As has been the case in most of the state exit polls, Romney garners substantially less support from less educated and Tea Party Republican and Republican-leaning voters. College graduates favor Romney over Santorum by a 40% to 22% margin, while those without a college degree are more divided: 29% back Romney, 25% Santorum, and 23% Gingrich.

Tea Party Republicans split their support between Gingrich (29%), Romney (26%) and Santorum (24%), while Romney holds a double-digit lead among the roughly half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters  who do not identify with the Tea Party.

Republican men are divided in their support, with 30% backing Romney, 26% Gingrich, and 21% Santorum. Among women, 36% favor Romney for the nomination, compared with 27% who back Santorum and just 15% who back Gingrich.

Religion remains a deep divide within the Republican electorate; white evangelical Republicans are less likely than white mainline Protestants and Catholics to favor Romney for the nomination.

More Worry about Extended GOP Race

A growing number of Republican and Republican-leaning voters are concerned that the unresolved campaign will be a bad thing for the Republican Party this year. A month ago, 55% said the fact that the contest was undecided and still going on was a good thing for the party, while 36% said it was a bad thing. Opinion is now divided almost evenly, with 47% saying it is good and 43% bad. Mitt Romney’s supporters are more likely to say the long campaign is a bad thing for the party (52%), than are Gingrich’s (36%) or Santorum’s (30%) supporters.

Republican evaluations of the quality of the GOP field have changed little over the course of the campaign. About half (49%) say the candidates for the party’s nomination are excellent (6%) or good (43%), while 48% say they are

only fair (39%) or poor (9%). In February 2008, a few weeks after Super Tuesday, 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said the field was excellent or good, while 38% said it was only fair or poor. Democrats also were more enthusiastic about their field in 2008 – fully 80% said they had excellent or good candidates.

Conservative Republicans are somewhat more satisfied with the quality of candidates than are moderates and liberals (55% excellent or good vs. 43%). Similarly, 60% of Tea Party supporters say the candidates are excellent or good compared with 41% of Republicans who do not agree with the Tea Party.

Republican Views of Romney, Santorum

When asked about the candidates’ positions on the issues, roughly half of Republican voters say Romney’s and Santorum’s positions are about right. More say Santorum is too conservative (23%) than say he is not conservative enough (14%). By contrast, more see Romney as not conservative enough (33%) than as too conservative (11%).

More than four-in-ten (44%) conservative Republicans say that Romney is not conservative enough in his positions on issues. An equal number of white evangelical Republicans think Romney is not conservative enough, as do 56% of Republican and

Republican-leaning voters who back Rick Santorum for the nomination. Men are significantly more likely than women to say Romney is not conservative enough in his position on the issues (38% vs. 27%).

The impression that Santorum is too conservative is less common among GOP voters overall, but held by 44% of those who back Mitt Romney, and 35% of moderate and liberal Republicans. This view is also more prevalent among Republicans with family incomes of $75,000 or more (28%) than among those earning $30,000 or less (13%).

There is far more consensus among GOP voters about whether the candidates understand the needs of people like them. About seven-in-ten Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters say that Santorum (70%) and Romney (69%) understand the needs of people like them very or fairly well.

There is little difference across most groups within the Republican electorate. Broad majorities of men and women, those with high and low incomes, and Southern and non-Southern Republican voters say each candidate understands the needs of people like them.

Conservative Republicans give Santorum higher marks than do moderates and liberals on this question (78% vs. 59%). While 78% of white evangelical Republicans say Santorum understands the needs of people like them, fewer (66%) say the same about Romney.

Voters’ Knowledge of Candidates’ Religious Preferences

The percentage of all registered voters who know that Mitt Romney is Mormon has increased from 48% in November to 58%. A majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (55%) know Romney’s religion, as do 65% of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

Only about three-in-ten voters (29%) can identify Rick Santorum as a Catholic. This includes 32% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners. Another 15% identify Santorum as either Protestant (10%) or volunteer that he is Christian (5%). About half (53%) of voters say they don’t know his religion.

In a follow-up question, about a third of those who identify Santorum as a Christian – 16% of voters overall – say they believe he is an evangelical or born-again Christian.

Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 42% of Catholics know that the former Pennsylvania senator is Catholic compared with 29% of Protestants.

About a third (35%) of white evangelical Protestant Republicans say Santorum is evangelical; this contrasts with just 9% of white mainline Protestants and 11% of Catholics. In fact, as many white evangelical Republicans believe Santorum is an evangelical Christian (35%) as know that he is Catholic (34%).

With rising job approval and favorability ratings, Barack Obama also holds a growing advantage in voter preferences as they look toward November. Among registered voters, he currently leads Mitt Romney by 12 points and Rick Santorum by 18 points.

The difference between Romney and Santorum at the head of the GOP ticket mainly affects independents. While independent voters are divided in a race between Obama and Romney (47% vs. 43%), they would favor Obama by a 53% to 39% margin if Santorum is his opponent.

Some moderate and liberal Republican voters would also balk if Santorum becomes the nominee; 23% say they would vote for Obama, compared with 12% who would favor Obama over Romney.

Barack Obama’s lead over Romney is attributable in large part to his wide advantage among women, younger voters, and nonwhites. Women favor Obama over Romney by 20 points – virtually unchanged from a month ago – while men are divided almost evenly (49% Obama, 46% Romney). This gender gap is particularly wide among voters under age 50. Women ages 18-49 favor Obama over Romney by nearly two-to-one (64% to 33%), while men the same age are split (50% Obama, 46% Romney).

Non-Hispanic whites – who make up roughly three-quarters of the registered voters surveyed – favor Romney over Obama by a 52% to 44% margin. Meanwhile, nonwhites back Obama by 83% to 13%, including 99% of African Americans who support Obama for reelection.

Education remains a substantial divide among white voters; 53% of white college graduates back Obama over Romney, compared with 39% of those without a college degree.

Not only does Obama lead Romney, but more of his supporters back him strongly. Fully 77% of Obama supporters say they back him strongly in a matchup with Romney, representing 41% of voters overall. By comparison, 68% of Romney’s supporters – or 28% of all voters – back him strongly.

Among women, not only do 58% favor Obama, but 47% back him strongly, meaning that more women support Obama strongly than support Romney strongly or moderately (38%).

The GOP Enthusiasm Gap

As voters look toward the fall election, Democrats express more enthusiasm for Obama than Republicans do for either of their party’s leading candidates. To be sure, however, this reflects the internal divisions within the party over who would be the best nominee, with each candidate receiving tepid support from those who would prefer to see the other candidate win.

If the general election is between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they would back Obama strongly, compared with 63% of Republicans and Republican leaners who say they would back Romney strongly.

If Santorum is the GOP nominee, 80% of Democratic voters say they would support Obama strongly, compared with 61% strongly backing Santorum among Republican voters.

Much of this reflects the tepid support among Republican voters who back the other candidate in the primaries. For example, 75% of Romney’s primary supporters say they would back him strongly in the fall – equal to the share of Democrats who strongly back Obama. But just 55% of Santorum’s primary supporters say they would be strong Romney supporters in the fall.

Again, this gap within the GOP is even wider if Santorum is the nominee. Fully 83% of Santorum’s primary supporters would back him strongly in the fall – comparable to the 80% of Democrats who would back Obama strongly over Santorum. But just 47% of Romney’s primary supporters would back Santorum as enthusiastically. In fact, one-in-five (20%) Romney supporters say that, if Santorum is the nominee, they will likely switch sides and support Obama.

Most Predict Obama Victories in the Fall

By a 59% to 32% margin, most Americans think Barack Obama will win the election if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. That margin far wider if Rick Santorum is the GOP nominee: 68% think Obama would win, just 24% Santorum.

Confidence among Democratic voters is high regardless of the outcome of the GOP primary – 83% of Democrats and Democratic leaners expect Obama to prevail over Romney, 89% believe he would win over Santorum.

But Republican voters are less confident – particularly if Santorum wins the primary contest. By a modest 60% to 30% margin most Republican and Republican leaning voters think Romney would win in the fall if nominated. But if Santorum is the nominee, about as many Republican voters think Obama would win (43%) as think Santorum would win (46%).

This difference is driven by the views of Romney’s primary backers, most of whom (59%) think Obama would win if Santorum becomes the nominee. By contrast, Santorum’s primary supporters are mostly optimistic about beating Obama regardless of whether Romney (61%) or Santorum (64%) becomes the nominee.

Views of Obama, Romney and Santorum

More than half of the public (56%) holds a favorable view of Obama, while 41% have an unfavorable view of the president. This is largely unchanged from last month, but reflects a modest improvement from the start of the year. Impressions of Republican candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are much more negative, and have grown more negative in recent months.

By a 51% to 29% margin, more Americans hold an unfavorable than a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney. As recently as November, assessments of Romney were more evenly divided (42% unfavorable, 36% favorable), but since then, Romney’s favorable rating has declined seven points while his unfavorable rating has risen nine. Independents, in particular, have developed a more negative view of Romney. In November, 36% of independents viewed Romney favorably, 42% unfavorably. In the current survey, the balance of opinion has slipped to 27% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

More Americans also hold an unfavorable (44%) than favorable (27%) view of Rick Santorum. Just a month ago, about as many held a favorable (33%) as unfavorable (36%) view of the former Pennsylvania senator. Santorum’s favorability has declined across the political spectrum. Currently, more independents view Santorum negatively than positively by roughly two-to-one (47% unfavorable, 23% favorable), compared with a 40% unfavorable, 29% favorable margin last month. And even among Republicans, barely half (53%) view Santorum favorably, down from 61% a month ago, while the share who view him unfavorably rose from 17% to 25%.

These low ratings for the GOP candidates in 2012 stands in sharp contrast to assessments of the major candidates four years ago. In March of 2008, John McCain was viewed favorably by 45% of Americans, including 49% of independents. Notably, 74% of Republicans felt favorably toward McCain four years ago, compared with 58% and 53% who say the same about Romney and Santorum today.

At 56%, Barack Obama’s overall favorability rating matches public opinion in March 2008. But, not surprisingly, views of him are far more partisan today. Just 13% of Republicans view him favorably, compared with 31% in March 2008. Meanwhile, 89% of Democrats now view him favorably, compared with 76% four years ago. Independent views of Obama today are virtually identical to March of 2008 (53% vs. 56% favorable).

A majority of voters say Obama understands the needs of people like them, while far fewer say this about Romney or Santorum. About six-in-ten voters (58%) say Obama understands their needs either very or fairly well; 44% say this about Romney and Santorum, respectively.

Obama receives lower marks for his positions on the issues, though Romney and Santorum perform slightly worse than does Obama. About four-in-ten (42%) say Obama’s positions on the issues are about right, but about as many (41%) say they are too liberal; 12% say they are not liberal enough. More independents call Obama’s issue positions too liberal (45%) than say they are about right (33%).

Roughly a third of voters say Romney’s positions on the issues are about right (35%), with criticism of his positions divided between those who say he is too conservative (29%) and those who say he is not conservative enough (23%). Among Republican voters, just 49% say his issue positions are about right, while 34% say they are not conservative enough. Among independents, a 40%-plurality says his stance on issues is about right, 27% say too conservative, 20% not conservative enough.

More voters describe Santorum’s positions on issues as too conservative (40%) than say they are about right (33%); just 15% say they are not conservative enough. A 57%-majority of Republicans say his issue positions are about right. However, among independents more say his positions are too conservative (45%) than about right (30%).

For the first time since shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden, half of all Americans (50%) say they approve of Barack Obama’s job performance, while just 41% disapprove. Over the course of 2012, Obama’s job approval has improved from 44% in January to 47% in February to 50% today.

For the second month in a row, about as many independents say they approve of how Obama is handling his job as president as disapprove (45% vs. 42%, virtually unchanged from 45% vs. 44% in February). This is a substantial improvement from the previous seven months. From July 2011 through January 2012, significantly more independents consistently disapproved than approved of Obama’s job performance.

There also has been a recovery in Obama’s job ratings among Democrats – fully 85% approve of his performance today. While this is little changed from February (84%) it represents an improvement from January (79%) and a recent low of 77% in August. Just 11% of Republicans approve of the job Obama is doing, with no significant change in recent months.

While modest, the improvement in Obama’s job approval rating has spanned most demographic groups.

His approval has risen significantly among Americans age 50 and older, from 40% in January to 50% today – closing what had been a substantial age gap. Among those 18-49, there has been little shift in overall job approval (48% in January, 50% today).

Obama’s job approval also has risen notably among white college graduates, from 42% in January to 53% today. Whites without a college degree remain, on balance, critical of Obama’s job performance, with just 35% offering a positive assessment.

Obama’s Handling of Issues

On the key issue of the economy, more Americans continue to disapprove (53%) than approve (43%) of Obama’s job performance. But evaluations have improved in recent months, with approval rising from 35% in November to 38% in January and reaching 43% today.

Democrats continue to support Obama’s handling of the economy, though at 73%, his approval on this issue is significantly lower than Democratic job approval ratings overall. Republicans continue to be highly critical of Obama’s economic job performance (90% disapprove). Notably, fewer independents now disapprove (54%) of his handling of the economy than in January (67%).

Currently, 49% approve of how Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan, down from 56% in January and 60% in May 2011 following bin Laden’s killing. The number of independents who approve of Obama’s job on Afghanistan has slipped from 52% in January to 43% today, and fallen among Republicans from 42% to 29%.

The president’s approval rating on Iran, by contrast, is largely unchanged from January. About half (47%) approve of the way Obama is dealing with Iran, while 40% disapprove.

The federal budget deficit continues to be a point of weakness for the president. Majorities have disapproved of his handling of the deficit going back to July 2009. Currently, 58% disapprove of his handling of the deficit, while 36% approve.

About as many now approve as disapprove of Barack Obama’s job on energy policy (42% vs. 45%). The president’s rating on energy has rebounded from the start of the year. In January, more disapproved (46%) than approved (36%) of his policies.

The Democratic Party’s image has improved in recent months while impressions of the Republican Party have remained negative. The public also views the Democratic Party as better able to deal with the nation’s energy problems and Medicare. Despite offering a mixed assessment of the health care legislation passed in 2010, the public has more confidence in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party when it comes to health care. On a number of other issues and traits, Democrats run even with Republicans, while the GOP does not hold an advantage on any of eight areas tested.

About half (49%) now have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, up from 43% in January. This represents a significant recovery from an all-time low favorability rating of 38% in April 2010, just after the passage of the health care bill. However, impressions of the Democratic Party are still far lower than they were in January 2009 as Obama was taking office, when 62% viewed the party favorably.

Views of the Republican Party continue to be negative – just 36% have a positive impression of the GOP while 56% have an unfavorable opinion. This is little changed from earlier this year and matches the equally low ratings the GOP received in April 2010 (37%).

A majority of women (54%) now have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, up eight points over the last two months, while 40% have an unfavorable impression. Women’s views of the Republican Party are far more negative – 38% have a favorable opinion while 56% have an unfavorable one; these opinions are little changed from January. Throughout the past four years, with the exception of the spring and summer of 2010, women have viewed the Democratic Party more favorably than the GOP.

For the first time since 2009, more men have a favorable view of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party; 44% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party while 47% have an unfavorable view. By comparison, 35% have a positive view of the GOP while 56% have a negative view.

Opinions of the Democratic Party have also improved among older Americans. About half (49%) of those 50 and older have a positive view of the Democratic Party while 45% have a negative impression. In January, just 37% had a favorable opinion while 57% had an unfavorable one. College graduates also view the Democratic Party more favorably than they did two months ago – 55% now have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, up from 41% in January. There has been little change among those without a college degree.

Although the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably than the Republican Party, opinions of the parties are about even among non-Hispanic whites; 43% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party while 41% view the GOP favorably. Far more African Americans and Hispanics have a positive view of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

Democrats also are viewed more favorably than Republicans among all age groups except those 65 and older. (Majorities in every age group view the Republican Party unfavorably.) College graduates view the Democratic Party far more favorably than the GOP (55% vs. 31%) as do those in households earning less than $75,000 annually.

While independents take a dim view of both parties, the GOP fares far worse than the Democratic Party. About four-in-ten independents (39%) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party while 48% have an unfavorable view (in January just 32% had a favorable opinion and 60% an unfavorable view). By nearly two-to-one, more have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party than a favorable one (58% to 31%).

Republican Party Seen as More Extreme

Throughout the past year, the public has been mostly divided over who can better manage the government. Currently, 42% say the Democratic Party can better manage the federal government while 39% think the Republican Party would do better. Still, there has been a consistent perception that the Republican Party is more extreme in its positions than the Democratic Party. Half (50%) say the GOP is more extreme in its positions while just 35% say the Democratic Party is more extreme, a balance of opinion largely unchanged since July of last year.

The Democratic Party has opened a slim 44% to 39% advantage as the party better able to improve the job situation, which remains the public’s top economic concern. Over the past year, the parties have been tied on this issue. Democrats also now run even with Republicans on who can better deal with the federal budget deficit (42% Republicans, 41% Democrats). In October, Republicans had a nine-point lead on this issue.

On health care and energy, Democrats lead the Republican Party; 46% say the Democratic Party can better handle the nation’s energy problem while 35% choose the Republican Party. By a 49% to 35% margin, more say the Democratic Party can better deal with health care; Democrats have a similar advantage on dealing with the Medicare system.

The Democratic Party also is seen as better representing people’s views on abortion – 47% say Democrats better represent their views on abortion while 31% say the Republican Party.

Independents Rate the Parties

Among independents, about as many say the Democratic Party can handle most issues as say the Republican Party. The parties run even among independents on who can better manage the federal government and on nearly all issues tested, including improving the job situation, dealing with health care and the Medicare system and handling the nation’s energy problems.

However, independents view the Republican Party as better able to deal with the federal budget deficit; 46% of independents say the Republican Party can better handle the deficit while just 27% say the Democratic Party.

But by a 46%-29% margin, more independents say the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party better represents their views on abortion. About half of independents (49%) say the Republican Party is more extreme in its positions while a third (33%) name the Democratic Party.

Perceptions of economic news have improved sharply since last summer, a time many feared the nation could be slipping back into recession. However, opinions about national economic conditions remain overwhelmingly negative.

The percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy has fallen from 67% last summer to 24% in the current survey. Over this period, the proportion saying that economic news is a mix of good and bad has more than doubled, from 30% in August to 62% today. The percentage hearing mostly good news now stands at 11%, up from just 1% last August.

Perceptions of news about several sectors of the economy – including the

job situation, the financial markets and real estate values – also have become much less negative. Still, news about gas prices is viewed much more negatively. More than eight-in-ten (85%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about gas prices, up from 47% in November.

Public views of current ec

onomic conditions remain stubbornly negative. Just 10% describe the economy as excellent or good, while about nine-in-ten (89%) say conditions are only fair (38%) or poor (51%). Taken together, the negative assessments have changed little in many months.

In addition, optimism about the economy, which had increased in recent months, has leveled off. Overall, 44% say they expect economic conditions

to be better a year from now, 14% say conditions will be worse, and 38% say they will be the same. That is about the same as last month. From December to February, the percentage saying they expected economic conditions to improve rose 16 points (from 28% to 44%).

Growing concern over gas prices may be reflected in the public’s changing economic concerns. As has been the case for the past two years, a plurality of Americans (39%) say the job situation is the national economic issue that worries them most. But the percentage citing jobs has declined by eight points since November (from 47%), while the share citing rising prices has risen, from 13% then to 22% today.

In the current survey, about as many view rising prices as the top economic concern as cite the federal budget deficit (24%). Last July, nearly twice as many viewed the budget deficit than jobs as their top economic worry (29% vs. 15%).

Shifting Perceptions of Economic News

Though the public has seen more of a mix of good and bad news about the overall economy in recent months, the news about gas prices is now seen as overwhelmingly bad.

Currently, 85% say news about gas prices has been mostly bad, rivaling the percentage saying this during the run-up in fuel prices in early 2011. Just 12% now say they are hearing a mix of news about gas prices; 2% say they are hearing mostly good news.

Last March, 90% said news about gas prices had been mostly bad. But by last November, that had dropped to 47%.

Negative perceptions of news about gas prices stand in contrast with views of news about other sectors of the economy. There have been substantial declines in the percentages hearing mostly bad news about the job situation, financial markets and real estate values. In fact, the percentages hearing mostly bad news about those sectors are among the lowest since many of these questions were first asked in 2009.

About as many now say they are hearing mixed news as mostly bad news about the job situation (42% vs. 38%); 17% say they are hearing mostly good news about jobs. That is the lowest percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about jobs – and the highest percentage hearing mostly good news – since the question was first asked in June 2009.

As recently as last November, 64% said the news they were hearing about the job situation was mostly bad, 28% said it was mixed and just 5% said the news was mostly good.

Views of news about financial markets also are notably more upbeat. Currently, 29% say they are hearing mostly bad news about financial markets, down from 50% in November and 69% in August. Perceptions of news about real estate values have followed a similar trajectory: 39% now say they are hearing mostly bad news about real estate values, compared with 55% in November and 63%in August.

There has been less improvement in perceptions of news about prices for food and consumer goods. In the current survey, 50% say they are hearing mostly bad news about consumer prices, 38% say the news has been mixed and just 7% say the news has been good. That is largely unchanged from November (52% mostly bad). In August, 62% said news about prices for food and consumer goods was mostly bad.

There continue to be partisan differences in perceptions of economic news generally, as well as in views of news about economic sectors. But since last fall, the percentages of both Republicans and Democrats who say economic news is mostly bad has fallen across partisan lines.

In the current survey, 30% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy, down from 58% last November and 72% in October. The decline has been comparable among Democrats and Democratic leaners: Just 17% now say the news is mostly bad; last October, 50% expressed this view.

Partisan Differences in Views of Economy

Large majorities of Democrats (82%), independents (92%) and Republicans (96%) rate current economic conditions negatively, describing them as either only fair or poor.  But Republicans are far more likely to see conditions as poor: 68% say this, compared with 54% of independents and just 35% of Democrats.

Partisans also offer sharply different assessments of how the economy is likely to fare over the next year. About half of Republicans (49%) expect economic conditions will be about the same a year from now. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) say conditions will be better, while 18% expect conditions to be worse.

Democrats are much more upbeat: 62% expect conditions to be better, 29% say they will be about the same and 7% say conditions will be worse. Among independents, 42% say conditions will be about the same, 37% say they will be better and 17% say they will be worse.

In terms of the most worrisome economic issue, Democrats and independents are most likely to cite the jobs situation (47%, 36%), while Republicans are most likely to cite the federal budget deficit (39%).

Last November, about as many Republicans cited jobs (39%) as the deficit (36%) as their top economic worry. But the percentage of Republicans citing the job situation has declined by 10 points since then while the percentage citing the deficit is unchanged. The proportion of independents citing the job situation as their top economic worry also has fallen 1o points (from 46% to 36%) since November.

Democrats’ concerns over the job situation have remained fairly steady, but their concerns over the budget deficit have fallen since last summer. In July, 24% cited the budget deficit as their top economic worry, double the percentage in the current survey (12%).

Rising prices are of particular concern to those with low family incomes. Among those with family incomes of less than  $30,000, 28% cite rising prices as their top economic worry, compared with 21% among those earning between $30,000 and $74,999 and 16% among those earning $75,000 or more. Still, jobs are the top concern across all income categories.

Less than two weeks before the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the 2010 health care law, the public is evenly divided about the legislation. Overall, 47% approve of the law, while 45% disapprove. The 47% approval represents an uptick in support since January 2011 (41% approve vs. 48% disapprove). Since the bill became law on March 23, 2010, disapproval of the legislation has been fairly steady, ranging from 44% in April 2010 to 48% in January 2011. Approval has shown somewhat more movement, from a low of 35% in July 2010, to a high of 47% in the current survey.

Republicans are unified in opposition to the law, with 84% disapproving and only 11% approving. By a wide margin (76% to 17%), Democrats approve of the measure. Independents are divided (44% approve, 47% disapprove).

Younger adults are somewhat more likely to approve of the law than are older adults, while upper income adults are more likely to disapprove than are the least affluent. A large majority of blacks (83%) approve of the law, as do 66% of Hispanics; far fewer whites approve (37%).

Given the division in overall opinion of the health care law, it is not surprising that there is no consensus about what Congress should do about it. Overall, 38% favor repealing the law, while 33% favor expanding it and 20% favor leaving it as is. Opinion about what to do with the law is essentially unchanged since the fall of 2010.

Most of those who disapprove of the law favor repealing it (76%). Among those who approve of the law, 54% would like to see it expanded, while 34% favor leaving it as is.

Support for repeal reaches 50% or higher only among Republicans (74%), including conservative Republicans (82%), and higher income adults (52% among those with family incomes of $100,000 or more).

Opposition to the “Individual Mandate”

A 56% majority of the public disapproves of the health care law’s requirement that all individuals be covered by health insurance or face a penalty; 41% approve of the mandate. The provision, which will take effect in 2014, includes financial subsidies for people who cannot afford the cost of coverage.

Not surprisingly, opposition to the mandate follows the same contours as overall opinion about the health care law, with Republicans much more opposed than Democrats and independents, and blacks and young people more supportive than other groups. In addition, college graduates are divided over the individual mandate (49% approve, 49% disapprove) but are more supportive of it than are people with less education.

A close examination of patterns of response to the question suggests that opinions on this issue, which is at the heart of the case before the Supreme Court, may not be especially firm. The survey question mentioned both the financial penalty to be assessed for failure to purchase insurance and the financial assistance the government will provide to those who cannot afford a policy. But levels of approval of the provision were highly sensitive to which aspect of the law was mentioned last.

Among those for whom the question ended with the reference to financial help, opinion is evenly divided (47% approve of the mandate vs. 49% who disapprove). But among those who heard about the penalty last, most disapprove of the provision (63% disapprove vs. 34% approve).

Most of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 7-11, 2012, among a national sample of 1,503 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (900 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 603 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 310 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Some of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 8-11, 2012, among a national sample of 1,005 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (602 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 403 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 199 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see:  https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.