Overview

Barack Obama begins his fourth year in office facing a struggling economy, an unhappy public, and a lower job approval rating than most of his recent predecessors at a

comparable point in their presidencies. In fact, Obama’s job rating today is a bit more negative than it was in December: 48% disapprove of his performance as president while 44% approve.

George W. Bush began his reelection year with a 56% job approval rating; Bill Clinton’s approval rating was 50% in January 1996. Obama’s current mark is closer to George H. W. Bush’s in January 1992 (46% approved, 43% disapproved).

Obama continues to struggle among political independents: Just 37% of independents approve of the way he is handling his job as president while 56% disapprove. George H. W. Bush had a similar approval rating (39%). But Obama’s disapproval rating among independents is higher than Bush’s, and much higher than either Clinton’s or George W. Bush’s.

Nonetheless, Obama possesses political strengths at the start of his reelection year, notably a positive personal image. Large majorities say Obama stands up for his beliefs (75%), cares about people like them (61%) and is trustworthy (61%). And while perceptions of Obama’s leadership have declined over time, on balance more say he is a strong leader than disagree (52% vs. 45%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 11-16 among 1,502 adults, finds that Obama’s personal image is much stronger than GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney’s. Currently, 51% say they have a favorable opinion of Obama while 45% have an unfavorable view. Romney’s favorability with the public stands at just 31%, while his unfavorable rating is as high as Obama’s (45%). (For more on the GOP primary and general election, see “Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead,” Jan. 18, 2012).

The survey also finds that Michelle Obama remains broadly popular with the public. Currently 66% say they have a favorable opinion of Michelle Obama while just 21% have an unfavorable view. Favorable opinions of the first lady have declined only modestly – by 10 points – since peaking at 76% early in her first year in the White House. In contrast, Barack Obama’s personal favorability has fallen by 22 points (from 73% to 51%) during this period.

The public’s views of the legacy of the Obama presidency reflect his mixed job approval ratings. About as many say Obama will be an unsuccessful (32%) as a successful president (27%), with a plurality (39%) saying it is too soon to tell. Similarly, about equal percentages think the failures of the Obama administration will outweigh its accomplishments (44%) as say its accomplishments will outweigh its failures (43%). On both measures, Obama is seen less positively than George W. Bush was at about the same point in his first term.

As has been the case for much of his presidency, Obama receives much better job approval ratings for terrorism and international threats than he does for the economy, energy policy

or the budget deficit. Obama’s approval rating for handling the threat of terrorism stands at 65%, 10 points higher than a year ago. His rating for terrorism today is nearly as high as it was just after the killing of Osama bin Laden last May (69%).

A majority of the public (56%) also approves of the way Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan; just 37% disapprove. His job rating on Afghanistan also turned much more positive following bin Laden’s death and remains positive today.

Nearly half (48%) approve of the way Obama is dealing with the situation in Iran; almost as many (41%) disapprove. And about as many approve (46%) as disapprove (45%) of the way Obama is handling the nation’s foreign policy.

However, Obama’s job ratings on major domestic issues – the economy and the federal budget deficit – remain abysmal. Just 38% approve of his handling of the economy while 59% disapprove. His rating on the budget deficit is equally negative (34% approve, 62% disapprove. The percentage disapproving of his handling of these issues has risen over the past year (by eight points and nine points, respectively).  In addition, for the first time in Obama’s presidency, significantly more disapprove (46%) than approve (36%) of his handling of energy policy. (This survey was conducted before the Obama administration’s recent decision on the Keystone XL oil pipeline.)

Other Findings

Few “Green Shoots” Evident. Public views about the economy remain quite negative. Just 11% say the nation’s economy is excellent or good, and only 16% say jobs are plentiful in their community. Still, more expect economic conditions to be better a year from now than did so in December (34% now, 28% then).

Congress at Record Low. Just 23% express favorable opinion of Congress, among the lowest measures ever in a Pew Research Center survey. House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are increasingly unpopular among members of their own parties.

Cooperation Not Conflict. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say GOP leaders should work with Obama, even if it means disappointing some Republican supporters. About the same percentage (59%) wants to see Obama compromise, even if that means disappointing some Democratic supporters.

Biden Down, Clinton Still Up. Joe Biden’s favorability rating has declined since the first year of the Obama administration. Just 38% view Biden favorably, down from 50% in November 2009. By contrast, 62% view Hillary Clinton favorably, largely unchanged over this period.

Obama’s Influences. Nearly seven-in-ten Republicans (69%) say Obama listens more to liberal Democrats than moderates in the party. Democrats, by contrast, increasingly see Obama being influenced by moderates – 58% of Democrats express this view, up from 44% in June 2010.

Barack Obama enters his fourth year in office with about as many Americans disapproving (48%) as approving (44%) of the job he is doing in office. A notable change over the past year

is the president’s standing among independents. Currently, 56% of independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing in office, while just 37% approve. A year ago, independents were divided evenly (44% approve, 45% disapprove).

Obama is doing far worse among independents than his predecessors at the same point in his presidency. In January 2004, independents approved of the job George W. Bush was doing by a 52% to 34% margin, and 50% of independents approved of Bill Clinton’s job performance in January 1996. Even George H.W. Bush was in a stronger position among independents in January 1992 than Obama is today. In January 1992, Bush had a comparable 39% approval rating among independents, but just 45% disapproved, compared with the 56% who disapprove of Obama’s performance today.

Americans are divided in their assessments of Obama’s long-term achievements. While 43% believe that in the long run the administration’s accomplishments will outweigh its failures, about the same number (44%) believe the failures will outweigh the accomplishments. At the start of 2004, more saw the Bush administration’s accomplishments outweighing its failures by a 49% to 36%

margin. After his reelection, this evaluation turned sharply negative, and by December of 2008 64% said the Bush administration’s failures would outweigh its accomplishments. 

On another measure, 32% predict that Obama will end up being an unsuccessful president while 27% predict he will be successful, and 39% say it is still too early to tell. While fewer now believe it is too early to judge than did so last year, the relatively even balance of opinion on Obama’s long term success is little changed. As George W. Bush entered his re-election year, more thought his presidency would be successful than unsuccessful by roughly two-to-one (39% vs. 20%, with 38% saying it was too early to tell).

Obama Doing Better on Foreign than Domestic Issues

Obama continues to get stronger ratings on foreign and security policy than on economic issues at home. While opinion remains mixed as to his overall foreign policy (46% approve, 45% disapprove), Obama receives widely positive marks for his handling of terrorism (65% approve) and Afghanistan (56% approve). Reviews of Obama’s Afghanistan policy, in particular, improved earlier this year after the killing of Osama bin Laden, and have remained positive since.

And with increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, slightly more approve (48%) than disapprove (41%) of how Obama is dealing with the situation. This represents a 6-point

increase in approval on Iran since the question was last asked a year ago.

Although Obama’s foreign policy ratings are stable or improving, he has lost substantial ground on his handling of energy policy in just the past few months. Currently, just 36% of the public approves of how Obama is handling energy policy, while 46% disapprove. This is a reversal of the balance of opinion during much of 2010 and 2011. As recently as November, 44% approved of the job Obama was doing on energy, while 38% disapproved.   Two months ago, 69% of Democrats approved of the job Obama was doing on energy policy; that figure has dropped 13 points to 56%. There has been less change in opinions among independents (down six points) and Republicans (one point).

Obama gets better marks for his handling of the environment; about half the public (49%) approves of the job Obama is doing, while 36%

disapproves. These figures are virtually unchanged from April, and there has been no loss of Democratic support on the environment,with 75% approving of Obama’s job performance on the issue.

Majorities continue to disapprove of the job Obama is doing handling the economy and the federal deficit. About six-in-ten disapprove of each. Disapproval on the deficit is up since November, from 57% to 62%.

Of the eight items tested, the economy and deficit have thelargest partisan gaps. Just 11% of Republicans approve of the job Obama isdoing with the economy, while 69% of Democrats do. Just 14% of Republicans approve of Obama’s handling of the deficit, compared with 63% of Democrats.

Little Change in Obama’s Personal Image

Obama continues to be widely viewed as a good communicator (78% say this phrase reflects their impression of him), someone who stands up for what he believes in (75%), warm and friendly (71%) and well-informed (69%).  Somewhat fewer view Obama as someone who cares about people like them (61%) and trustworthy (also 61%). These impressions have changed little over the past two years.  

By contrast, a narrow majority (52%) views Obama as a strong leader and slightly fewer (46%) say he is able to get things done. Views of Obama as a strong leader fell in 2010, rebounded a bit in May of last year following the killing of Osama bin Laden, and declined again in August. The current measure is little changed from August.

The percentage saying Obama is able to get things done also declined in August – to 44% from 55% in May and 54% in January 2011. Obama’s current rating for effectiveness also has changed little since August.

As in the past, there are wide partisan differences in views of Obama’s personal traits, particularly in perceptions of his trustworthiness and leadership. Nonetheless, while Republicans are less likely than Democrats to view Obama positively on all dimensions, majorities of Republicans say Obama is a good communicator, stands up for what he believes in, is warm and friendly and well-informed.

Majorities of independents also view the president positively on nearly every trait, with two notable exceptions. Just 44% of independents say Obama is a strong leader while about the same percentage (41%) says that he is able to get things done.

Obama’s Ideology, Influences

Perceptions about Obama’s ideology are divided and strongly related to party affiliation. Overall about four-in-ten (43%) say that Obama is liberal, while only somewhat fewer (37%) say he is “middle of the road” ideologically. Far fewer (13%) describe him as conservative. This pattern is essentially unchanged since the beginning of his presidency.

However, views of where Obama stands differ greatly by party. Two-thirds of Republicans (67%) believe that Obama is liberal, while only 30% of Democrats agree. A plurality of Democrats (46%) characterize Obama as middle of the road. Equal numbers of independents see Obama as liberal or middle of the road (41% each), but this breakdown conceals the fact that 61% of independents who lean Republican view Obama as a liberal while a majority of Democratic-leaning independents (53%) see him as middle of the road.

These ideological perceptions coincide with opinions about which segment of the Democratic Party – the liberal members or the moderate members – Obama is listening to more. Overall the public is divided evenly on this question: 42% say he’s listening more to liberal Democrats, 41% say moderate Democrats.

Only about one-in-five Democrats (22%) believe that Obama is listening more to the liberal side of the party. That reflects an eleven point decline since June of 2010, when 33% said he was listening more to liberals in the party. Currently, 58% of Democrats think Obama is listening more to moderates in the party, up from 44% in 2010. Among Republicans, there has been little change in the majority view that Obama mostly listens to liberal Democrats.

Obama in a Word

When asked what one word best describes people’s impressions of Barack Obama, the most frequent responses are Good (24 mentions) Incompetent (21), Intelligent (19), Socialist (17), Honest (16), Trying (16) and Disappointing (15).

All of these words have been used in the past to describe the president. Mentions of some words have increased, however. For instance, in January 2010, six respondents used the word Disappointing to describe their impression of the president. Last year, nine respondents described him as Disappointing and this year 15 respondents used this word.

Some new words appear on this year’s list of one-word descriptions of Obama. Among positive descriptors, seven respondents describe Obama as Hardworking. Among negative words, Sucks appears for the first time; seven respondents used this word to describe their impression of the president.

As Congress returns for the 2012 session, the American public’s view of the institution is as negative as it has ever been in over 25 years of Pew Research Center surveys. Just 23% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of Congress, while 69% have an unfavorable view. These opinions are little changed from August of last year when views of Congress turned sharply more negative in the midst of the debate over extending the nation’s debt ceiling.

There is virtually no partisan gap in ratings of Congress – 29% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Congress. Even fewer independents, just 19%, view Congress favorably.

Not only are views of Congress negative, but so too are views of the two majority leaders. Only 21% say they have a favorable view of John Boehner while nearly twice as many (40%) have an unfavorable

view; 39% have no opinion or have not heard of him. The public’s opinion of Boehner has turned sharply more negative since March of last year when just 27% expressed an unfavorable view and as many (26%) had a favorable opinion of Boehner.

Similarly, Harry Reid also receives very negative ratings. Just 18% say they have a favorable opinion of Reid while about twice as many (38%) have an unfavorable opinion. These views have changed little since December 2010.

While there continues to be a partisan gap in views of Boehner, his unfavorable ratings have increased across the board. Currently, 36% of Republicans express a favorable view of Boehner while 28% view him unfavorably. The percent expressing an unfavorable view has increased 13 points since March of last year when Republicans viewed Boehner far more favorably than unfavorably.

Nearly half of Democrats (47%) say they have an unfavorable opinion of Boehner, up from 36% in March. Just 14% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him.

Independents view Boehner far more negatively now than they did last year, and nearly as critically as do Democrats. By a 43% to 19% margin more have an unfavorable opinion of Boehner than a favorable one. In March 2011, opinion among independents was divided (25% favorable, 27% unfavorable).

Harry Reid’s favorability among Democrats has dropped substantially over the past year. Currently, only 27% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Reid while nearly as many (24%) have an unfavorable view. In December 2010, far more viewed him positively than negatively (40% vs. 23%). Views of Reid are very negative among both Republicans and independents, and have changed little over the past year.

Public Continues to Want Compromise

Most Americans want Obama and Republican leaders in Washington to work together to get things done in the coming year. A majority (58%) says GOP leaders should try as best they can to work with Barack Obama to accomplish things, even if it means disappointing some Republican supporters. Similarly, 59% say Obama should try as best he can to work with GOP leaders to accomplish things, even if it means disappointing Democratic supporters.

But Republicans, particularly those who agree with the Tea Party, are opposed to compromise when it comes to their own political leaders. Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents continue to say that GOP leaders in Congress should stand up to Obama (55%) rather than work with him to accomplish things (35%). Similar to a year ago, Tea Party Republicans are the most likely to reject compromise. Republicans who agree with the Tea Party movement favor standing up to Obama on important issues by about a three-to-one margin (67% vs. 21%). By comparison, Republicans who disagree or have no opinion about the Tea Party are divided – 49% say GOP leaders should stand up to Obama while 43% say they should work with Obama.

Democrats are divided over what they want Obama to do. About as many Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Obama should work with Republicans in Congress (48%) as say he should stand up to them on important issues (44%). More moderate and conservative Democrats (53%) than liberal Democrats (41%) want Obama to work with Republicans in Congress.

From the public’s perspective, the economic news over the past year has been particular volatile. As recently as August, the Pew Research Center’s News Interest Index surveys found 67% saying they were hearing “mostly bad news” about the economy.  But the latest update earlier this month found only 30% saying the economic reports they were hearing were

mostly bad news, while 60% said the economic news was a mix of good and bad, and 9% said the news was mostly good.

While what people are hearing about unemployment rates and economic growth month-to-month registers with them, it does not have an immediate impact on their overall economic assessments. For more than three years, roughly 90% of Americans have said the nation’s economy is in only fair or poor shape, with little variation around ups-and-downs in the economic news cycle.

Despite hearing some more positive reports in recent months, the American public enters 2012 with the same negative overall assessments. Most say the economy is in only fair (42%) or poor (47%) shape, with only a small minority (11%) offering a positive rating.

But the economic outlook of Americans has improved slightly over the past month.  Currently, 34% say they expect the economy to be in better shape a year from now, up from a 3-year low of 28% last

month.  This improved outlook comes predominantly from Democrats, 51% of whom say they think the economy will pick up over the next year. Only around half as many Republicans (23%) and independents (29%) share this optimism.

Despite four consecutive months of dropping unemployment rates, Americans continue to see tough times on the job front.  Fully 78% say that jobs are difficult to find in their area,

down only modestly from a decade high of 85% last March.  Just 16% say they think there are plenty of jobs available in their community.

Unlike other economic measures, where Democrats offer a more upbeat assessment than Republicans, Republicans and Democrats have virtually identical assessments of job availability: 21% in each party believe that there are plenty of jobs available. By contrast, independents are particularly skeptical about the job situation – only 10% believe there are plenty of jobs available these days.

Barack Obama’s favorability rating has slipped over the course of his first three years in office. But Michelle Obama continues to be

viewed very positively. Two-thirds (66%) of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the first lady while just 21% have an unfavorable opinion. These views have changed little over the past year and are comparable to public evaluations when she became first lady roughly three years ago.

Currently, 51% say they have a favorable view of Barack Obama while 45% have an unfavorable view. Impressions of the president today are somewhat more negative than they were earlier this year, when he had a 58% favorability rating, but are similar to those he received on the eve of the 2010 midterm elections.

Nine-in-ten Democrats have a favorable view of the first lady, as do 61% of independents. Republicans are more divided: 49% have a favorable impression while 40% have an unfavorable view of the first lady.

Among Republicans there are strong differences in opinion by ideology. Moderate and liberal Republicans view Michelle Obama favorably by a 62% to 25% margin. Conservative Republicans are just as likely to view the first lady unfavorably (46%) as favorably (44%). Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party movement, just 38% view Michelle Obama favorably while 46% have an unfavorable opinion.

Michelle Obama is viewed more favorably by women than men (71% vs. 62%). She also receives higher favorability ratings among young people than among those 50 and older (71% vs. 62%). Nearly all of non-Hispanic blacks (95%) view her favorably, compared with 74% of Hispanics and 60% of non-Hispanic whites.

Although Barack Obama’s ratings are more negative than the first lady’s, the president remains very popular among many of the groups that were critical to his election in 2008: Democrats (86% favorable), liberals (79%), African Americans (92%) and Hispanics (64%). But among young people – who voted for him by a two-to-one margin in 2008 – Obama’s favorable rating is currently no higher than the national average (53%).

Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton

Three years into Joe Biden’s term as vice president, the public expresses more mixed views of him than they did in his first year of office. Roughly as many say they have a favorable opinion of Biden (38%) as say they have an unfavorable opinion (41%). In November 2009, half (50%) expressed a favorable view of Biden while 29% viewed him unfavorably.

Biden’s favorable ratings have decreased across party lines. Currently, 64% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of the vice president, down from 77% in November 2009. The share of Republicans who have an unfavorable opinion of Biden has grown from 53% to 66% over the same time period.

Vice President Biden’s standing among independents has reversed over the past two

years. In November 2009, more viewed him favorably than unfavorably by a 45% to 30% margin. Today, more view him unfavorably than favorably by almost exactly the same ratio (31% favorable, 43% unfavorable).

The public continues to view Hillary Clinton positively. Fully 62% have a favorable opinion of the current Secretary of State while half as many have an unfavorable opinion (31%). These numbers are little changed from a year ago, and Clinton has received positive favorability ratings for the past three years since she became Secretary of State. Both Democrats and independents overwhelmingly view her favorably – 82% and 60% respectively. Among Republicans, 41% view Clinton favorably and 52% view her unfavorably.

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 11-16, 2012 among a national sample of 1,502 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (902 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 600 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 293 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.