Overview

With four months to go before Election Day, voting intentions for the House remain closely divided, and neither party has gained or lost much ground over the course of 2010. However, Republicans are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans.

Fully 56% of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections – the highest percentage of GOP voters expressing increased enthusiasm about voting in midterms dating back to 1994. While enthusiasm among Democratic voters overall is on par with levels in 2006, fewer liberal Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting than did so four years ago (52% then, 37% today).

The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party’s voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign. Moreover, more Republicans than Democrats are now paying close attention to election news (64% vs. 50%). At this stage in previous midterms, news attentiveness was about the same for voters in both parties.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 16-20 among 1,802 adults and 1,496 registered voters reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that the Republicans also continue to hold a substantial advantage in the proportion of their party’s voters who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote. Currently, 77% of Republican voters say they are absolutely certain to vote compared with 65% of Democratic voters.

The new survey finds that 45% of registered voters say they support the Republican in their district while the same percentage favors the Democrat. While Democrats have a substantial advantage among the least engaged group of voters – young people – Republicans have a large advantage among the age groups that are most committed to voting – those 50 and older.

Voters younger than 30 favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a wide margin (57% to 32%). Yet only half of young voters say they are absolutely certain to vote. Voters ages 50 and older favor the Republican candidate in their district by double digits (11 points) and roughly eight-in-ten (79%) say they are absolutely certain to vote.

In June 2006, Democrats held significant leads among both younger and older voters. Their advantage among voters under 30 was about the same as it is today (56% vs. 36%), but they also held a 14-point lead among voters 50 and older (52% to 38%).

The GOP also is benefiting from a change in voting preferences among independents. Currently, Republicans have a slight edge over the Democrats among independent voters (44% to 36%). At this stage in 2006, independents backed the Democratic candidate in their district by a wide margin (47% to 32%).

Equally important, independents who say they will support the Republican candidate this November are much more engaged

than those who favor the Democrat in their district. This pattern is evident across several measures – enthusiasm about voting, attentiveness to campaign news and intention to vote.

More than half of independent voters (55%) who back the Republican candidate in their district are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year; that compares with 36% of independents who prefer the Democratic candidate. While 63% of independent voters who favor the GOP candidate are closely following news about the election, just 48% of independents who support the Democratic candidate say the same. And 77% of independent voters who support a Republican say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 62% of independents who back Democrat.

The 2010 Electoral Landscape

In many ways, the 2010 campaign is shaping up as a mirror image of the midterm election four years ago. In June 2006, more Democratic than Republican voters said national issues would have the biggest impact on their vote. Anti-incumbent sentiment also was much stronger then among voters who planned to vote for a Democratic candidate than among those voting Republican.

This year, more voters who plan to vote Republican than those who intend to vote Democratic say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress (by 43% to 34%). And fully 44% of Republican voters oppose their own member’s reelection, compared with just 22% of Democratic voters. In June 2006, these figures were nearly reversed (39% of Democratic voters vs. 22% of Republican voters).

The issue of which party controls Congress is as big a factor today for Republicans as it was for Democrats four years ago; 66% of those planning to vote for a Republican say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote, compared with 57% of Democratic voters. Four years ago, 68% of Democratic voters cited party control of Congress as an influence on their vote as did 55% of Republican voters.

Barack Obama is not as big a negative factor for Republican voters as George W. Bush was for Democratic voters four years ago. Currently, 52% of Republican voters think of their vote as a vote against Obama. In June 2006, 64% of

Democratic voters said that about Bush. And there are now more pro-Obama Democratic voters than there were pro-Bush Republican voters four years ago (44% vs. 34%).

As was the case in 2006, voters take a dim view of both parties’ congressional leaders – just 34% of voters approve of the job performance of Democratic leaders while 31% approve of the job of GOP leaders. While Republican voters are highly enthusiastic about the election, they are not very impressed with the party’s congressional leaders. Just 48% of voters who favor a GOP candidate in their district approve of the job of Republican congressional leaders while 43% disapprove. Far more Democratic voters (63%) approve of the job their party’s congressional leaders are doing.

Somewhat fewer voters say that Congress has accomplished less than did so in June 2006 (35% today, 45% then). But Republican voters are currently about as critical of the accomplishments of the current Congress (52% accomplished less) as Democratic voters were four years ago (57%).

Looking Ahead to Nov. 2

Fully 72% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters expect that the GOP will do better than it has in recent elections. This is similar to Democratic expectations during the 2006 election. In June of that year, 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters anticipated that their party would make gains – a figure that grew to 72% by the end of the campaign.

However, Democratic voters this year are not particularly pessimistic about the election: 29% expect the Democrats to do better in this year’s midterm, far more than the percentage of GOP voters who said that four years ago (16%). Nearly half of Democratic voters (48%) expect the party to do about the same this fall as in recent elections, while just 18% say it will do worse.

The optimism of Republican voters about their party’s chances this fall is one factor – though hardly the

only factor – boosting their enthusiasm about voting. Among the voters who favor the Republican candidate in their district and expect the party to do better than in recent elections, 63% are more enthusiastic about voting. That compares with 45% of voters who plan to vote Republican and expect the party to fare about the same as it has in recent elections.

The high level of enthusiasm among Republican voters also is linked to strongly negative opinions about Barack Obama. Fully 62% of Republican voters who think of their vote as a vote against Obama are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous elections. By comparison, fewer than half (45%) of those who say Obama is not a factor in their vote are more enthusiastic about voting. There is a similar gap in enthusiasm between Republican voters who say party control of Congress is a factor in their vote and those who do not (60% vs. 45%).

Republican voters who agree with the Tea Party movement – about half of all GOP voters – also are more enthusiastic about voting this fall than are Republican voters who have not heard of the Tea Party or have no opinion of the movement (66% vs. 45%).

GOP Image Still Weak

Despite the Republican Party’s favorable electoral prospects, its image with the public is still relatively weak. The public views the Democratic Party as more concerned about the needs of “people like me,” more able to bring about needed change, and as governing in a more honest and ethical way.

These opinions are little changed from February of this year. The Democratic Party’s lead on some traits is smaller than it was in October 2006, near the end of the previous midterm campaign. At that time, 55% viewed the Democrats as more concerned about the needs of average Americans, while just 27% said the GOP was more concerned.

Notably, the Republican Party holds a slight edge over the Democratic Party as better able to manage the federal government. Currently, 41% choose the Republican Party while 37% choose the Democratic Party. In October 2006, the Democratic Party held a 10-point lead as the party better able to manage the government (44% to 34%).

Voters continue to be divided in their preferences for this November’s Congressional elections – 45% support the Republican candidate in their district while 45% favor the Democratic candidate. These numbers are nearly identical to those in March and have been relatively stable over the course of this election cycle.

At this point in 2006, Democrats held a substantial 12-point advantage (51% to 39%) among registered voters. Voter preferences were evenly divided in June of the three previous election cycles.

GOP Engagement

Across all measures of interest, enthusiasm and voting intentions, the disparity between Republican and Democratic voters this cycle is wide. A 55% majority of registered voters who support the Republican candidate in their district say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, and 77% say they are absolutely certain that they will cast a ballot. By comparison, 42% of voters who support the Democratic candidate in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, and 65% are absolutely certain they will vote.

The enthusiasm gap is driven in large part by high engagement among Republicans rather than disengagement among Democrats. At 42%, the share of Democratic voters who say they are more enthusiastic than usual is comparable to the 1998 and 2002 elections, and only slightly lower than the 47% who said this four years ago. By contrast, the 55% of Republican voters who say they are more enthusiastic than usual this year is far higher than any previous election cycle, particularly 2006

when only 30% expressed greater enthusiasm.

High enthusiasm this year spans the GOP’s voting base. Not only are conservative Republicans more enthusiastic than usual, but moderate and liberal Republicans – and even independents who lean Republican – see this as an especially engaging election. The gap between the enthusiasm of Republican-leaning independents and Democratic-leaning independents is particularly noteworthy. Both groups back their party’s candidates by overwhelming margins, but 54% of Republican-leaning independents are more enthusiastic than usual and 76% are absolutely certain they will vote. Among Democratic-leaning independents, just 39% say they are more

enthusiastic than usual, and 58% are certain they will vote.

While the overall share of Democrats who say they are more enthusiastic than usual this year is down only slightly from 2006, liberal Democrats have a notably different mood this year. In the current survey, 37% say they are more enthusiastic about voting today, down from 53% in 2006.

Enthusiastic Tea Partiers

The focus on this year’s midterm elections is particularly intense among the 28% of registered voters who say they agree with the Tea Party movement – 85% of these voters say they are absolutely certain to vote, 77% are following campaign news closely, and 62% say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual.

Within the Republican base, the difference in engagement between those who agree with the Tea Party and those who offer no opinion about the movement is particularly noteworthy. Roughly half (51%) of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they agree with the Tea Party movement, while three-in-ten (30%) say they have heard of the Tea Party but neither agree nor disagree with what it stands for. (Much smaller minorities either disagree with (5%) or have never heard of (14%) the Tea Party.) In general, Republican voters with no opinion about the Tea Party are no more enthusiastic or engaged in this year’s midterm election than are Democratic voters. It is only the Tea Party Republicans who are fired up.

Eight-in-ten Tea Party Republicans are closely following news about local candidates and campaigns, just half of Republicans who have no opinion about the Tea Party say the same. Nearly nine-in-ten (88%) Tea Party Republicans are absolutely certain they will vote, compared with 68% of Republicans with no opinion about the Tea Party. Roughly two-thirds (65%) of Tea Party Republicans say they a re more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual; about half (49%) of Republicans with no opinion of the Tea Party say the same. On all three measures, Republicans with no opinion of the Tea Party movement share more in common with Democratic voters than with Tea Party Republican voters.

The Democratic Turnout Dilemma

Age is one of the strongest factors associated with turnout in midterm elections, and 2010 looks to be no different in this regard. Only 60% of registered voters under age 50 say they are absolutely certain they will

vote this fall, compared with 79% of voters age 50 and older. This is likely bad news for the Democrats in that voters over 50 favor Republican candidates by a 52% to 41% margin this year, while Democrats hold the edge among voters under age 50 (48% vs. 40%).

Not only are younger voters less inclined to turn out in general, but younger Democrats are particularly unenthusiastic. Just 53% of voters under age 50 who support the Democratic candidate in their district say they are absolutely certain to vote this fall. This compares with 72% absolutely certain to vote among Republican voters under 50. There is virtually no partisan gap in expected turnout among voters over age 50, with roughly eight-in-ten saying they are certain to vote on both sides.

Commitment to voting is also low among working class Democrats. Lower income and lower education voters who back Democratic candidates are substantially less likely to say they will definitely vote this fall. About six-in-ten Democrats without college degrees (59%) say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, compared with 75% of Republican voters without a college degree. Similarly, 57% of Democratic supporters with family incomes of less than $50,000 a year definitely plan to turn out while 72% of lower income Republicans say they are certain to vote.

And consistent with their lack of enthusiasm about this year’s midterm, liberal Democratic voters are no more likely to say they will absolutely cast a ballot this year (62%) than are conservative and moderate Democratic voters (67%).

These partisan differences in certainty about voting were not as apparent in the later part of the 2006 midterm election cycle. In October of that year, 78% of voters who supported Republican candidates and 77% of voters who supported Democratic candidates said they were absolutely certain they would cast their ballot. Moreover, there were no differences between the share of Democratic and Republican voters who intended to vote in most subgroups. In particular, young Democratic voters were just as likely to be certain to vote as young Republican voters (76% and 74%, respectively.)

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment

The electorate today is in a decidedly anti-incumbent mood. About a third of voters (34%) say they would not like to see their member of Congress reelected this November; 49% say they do want to see their representative reelected. This level of support for Congressional incumbents is at a historical low point, in keeping with voter opinion over the last several months and on par with opinion in June of 2006 (when 32% of voters said they did not want their representative reelected). By comparison, voters were considerably more content with their Congressional representation in the 2002 and 1998 midterm cycles. The current anti-incumbent sentiment is also somewhat higher than it was in October 1994 – weeks before the extensive GOP victories that lead to the party gaining control of Congress (30% of voters did not want their representative reelected then, compared with 34% today).

Similarly, a majority of voters (56%) now say they would not like to see most members of Congress reelected. This general rejection of Congressional incumbents is comparable to other recent historical highs in June 2006 (when 57% of voters said most members should not be reelected) and in October 1994 (when 56% said this). In other recent midterms, anti-incumbent sentiment was significantly less pronounced.

Party and Incumbency

About four-in-ten Republican (41%) and independent (42%) voters now say they do not want to see their representative reelected, while just 20% of Democratic voters share this view. Republican opinion toward incumbents today is slightly more negative than GOP views in October 1994 – the last midterm election in which they were the party out of power – when 34% did not want their member reelected. In June of 2006 it was the Democrats who were in an anti-incumbent mood, with 36% saying they did not want their congressperson reelected.

With 42% saying they don’t want their member reelected, anti-incumbent sentiment among independents is not much higher than four years ago, when 38% said the same. However, independent frustration is substantially more widespread than in 1994, when just 29% said they did not want to see their Congressperson reelected.

For the most part, this frustration is focused among a subset of independent voters who do not identify with either party, but say that they currently lean toward the Republican Party. Fully 57% of Republican-leaning independents say they do not want to see their incumbent returned to office. This is 30-points higher than among Democratic-leaning independents (27%), 28-points higher than the share of Republican-leaners who were of this opinion four years ago (29%), and even 16-points higher than among Republicans overall or conservative Republicans in particular (41% each).

Voters who support the Tea Party (many of whom identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents) are also more likely than others to say they want their representative to lose in November. Nearly half (49%) say this, compared with 25% among those who disagree with the Tea Party and 30% of those who do not give an opinion of the Tea Party.

Similar differences are evident on the question of whether most members of Congress should be reelected. Nearly seven-in-ten Republicans (69%) say they should not, as do 65% of independents; just 37% of Democrats say this. Historically, independent opinions on this question have tracked with the party not currently in control of Congress. Eight-in-ten voters who support the Tea Party (80%) say most members should not be reelected; fewer than half of other voters (47%) share this opinion.

Desire for New Faces in Office

Consistent with widespread voter dissatisfaction with incumbents, voters are now more inclined than they have been in the past to say that “having new faces in office” is more important to them this year than “having experienced people who know how the government works.” While the balance of opinion continues to favor experience (50%), substantially more voters today say that having new faces in office (41%) is their priority than in 2006 (30%), 1998 (22%) or 1994 (31%).

Not surprisingly, the appetite for new faces in office is often higher for members of the party not currently in control of Congress. Today, 42% of Republican voters say they value new faces more than experience, about the same proportion that said this in 1994 (39%). In contrast, when the GOP controlled Congress in 1998 and 2006, only about half as many Republican voters said they prioritized having new faces in office (19% in 1998, 21% in 2006). However, while Democratic voters are currently less likely than Republicans to say new faces are more important (30% vs. 42%), they are about as likely to say this as they were in 2006 (34%).

Having new faces in office is more important than having people with experience in government for the majority of independent voters (54%). Far fewer independent voters said this in 2006 (38%) or in 1994 (35%). Consistent with their anti-incumbent views, Republican-leaning independent voters are the strongest advocates for seeing fresh faces in office – more than six-in-ten (63%) say they value new faces over experience. In 1994, 44% of Republican leaning-independent voters said this. A majority of Tea Party supporters (58%) – many of whom are Republicans or Republican-leaners – also prize new faces over experience.

Voters younger than 30 are less likely than their older counterparts to say they value new faces over experience (33% of 18-29 year olds say this, compared to 43% of those age 30 and older). Similar age gaps were evident in previous election cycles.

A Nationalized Election

Voters point to national issues – over a range of other factors – as the biggest influence on their vote for Congress this year. A 38% plurality names national issues as the factor that will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress; 28% name local or state issues, 21% cite the candidate’s character and experience, and just 5% say the candidate’s political party will make the biggest difference in their vote.

The percentage citing national issues is up seven points from February and equals the highest level in any midterm election since Pew Research began asking the question in 1994. By contrast, the percentage citing a candidate’s character and experience is down compared with other recent midterm election cycles. Roughly equal shares of Republicans (40%) Democrats (34%) and independents (40%) say national issues make the biggest different in how they vote this year.

A separate question that asks respondents to choose only between national issues and local issues reinforces that the 2010 midterm has a national focus. A 56%-majority says, that in thinking about their vote for congress this fall, national issues matter more to them than local issues. About one-in-five (21%) say local issues matter more than national; and 23% volunteer that both national and local issues matter equally to their vote.

Control of Congress a Factor in Vote

Almost six-in-ten voters (58%) say the issue of which party controls Congress – Republicans or Democrats –

will be a factor in their vote for Congress this year; 39% say it will not be. At 58%, the percentage weighing party control of congress in their vote choice is up 10 points since February and matches the percentage citing party control in June 2006 – the midterm cycle that registered the highest importance for party control of Congress since Pew Research began asking the question in 1998. The current figure is significantly higher than the percentages citing party control of Congress as a factor in their vote in June of 1998 and 2002.

Republicans are much more likely than Democrats and independents to say the issue of which party controls congress will be a factor in their vote. Fully 73% of Republicans say this compared with 60% of Democrats and 42% of independents. In June of 2006 – when Republicans held majorities in the house and senate – the picture was reversed: at that time Democrats (72%) were more likely than Republicans (54%) and independents (48%) to say party control of congress was a factor.

In the current survey, fewer than half (42%) of independent voters say which party controls congress will matter to their vote. However, a majority (55%) of independents who lean to the Republican Party say party control will be a factor in their vote, this compares to 44% of Democratic-leaning independents. A similar pattern among independent voters was evident in June of 2006, with those leaning toward the party out of power being more likely to say party control was a factor in their vote choice.

Most Say Obama Plays Role in Vote

About half of voters (51%) say that Barack Obama will factor into their vote for congress this year: 28% describe their vote as a vote against Obama while 23% say it is a vote for Obama; 47% say that Barack Obama isn’t much of a factor in their vote. Since February, voters have become eight points more likely to describe their vote as a vote against Obama.

While up since February, the percentage considering their vote as a vote against Obama is still lower than the 38% who said in June 2006 that their midterm vote was a vote against George W. Bush. Nonetheless, the percentage saying they are voting against the president is higher than at comparable points in other recent midterm election cycles. In fact, the current survey marks only the third midterm cycle since 1982 (along with 1994 and 2006) in which significantly more voters have described their vote as a vote against, not for, a sitting president.

Not surprisingly, most Republicans (54%) describe their vote as a vote against Obama, while 47% of Democrats describe their vote as for Obama; most independents (54%) say Obama is not much of a factor in their vote. The 54% of Republicans who describe their vote as a vote against Obama is a relatively high measure of out-party midterm discontent with a sitting president; but it falls short of the 65% of Democrats who, in June of 2006, described their vote as a vote against George W. Bush.

Tea Party Voters and the Midterm Vote

Voters who agree with the Tea Party movement are more likely than those who do not agree or haven’t heard of the movement to say national issues will make the biggest

difference in their vote, that party control of congress will matter in their vote, and that their vote this fall is a vote against the president.

About half (51%) of voters who agree with the Tea Party movement say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress. By comparison, a third (33%) of those who disagree with or haven’t heard of the Tea Party movement say the same.

And while 51% of those who disagree with or haven’t heard of the Tea Party movement say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their midterm vote, an even greater percentage of Tea Party voters (74%) say party control will matter in their vote.

The largest divide between those who agree with the Tea Party movement and those who don’t comes on the question of whether voters describe their vote as for or against Obama; fully 54% of Tea Party sympathizers describe their vote as against Obama compared with just 18% of those who disagree with or haven’t heard of the Tea Party movement– a 36-point gap in opinion.

With the 2010 midterm elections approaching, the public remains highly critical of the leaders of both political parties in Congress. Just more than a third (35%) approve of Democratic leaders’ performance, while 53% disapprove.

Approval of Democratic leaders has fallen 13 points since February 2009. GOP congressional leaders receive comparable ratings. Just 31% approve of their job performance while 55% disapprove, which is little changed since early 2009.

The low ratings today for the leaders of both parties are about the same as the ratings in June 2006, a midterm election year that ended with Democrats taking control of Congress from Republicans. At this stage in the 2002 campaign, approval ratings for the leaders of both parties were much more positive: 50% approved of GOP leaders’ job performance while about as many (47%) approved of Democratic leaders’.

GOP Leaders Get Mixed Ratings from Base

Republicans continue to give their party’s congressional leaders fairly modest approval ratings. Currently, 54% of Republicans approve of the job that Republican leaders in Congress are doing, while 37% disapprove. Still, positive ratings for GOP leaders among Republicans are slightly higher than they were a year ago (47% approve, 41% disapprove).

A majority (52%) of those who agree with the Tea Party movement disapprove of the job being done by GOP leaders while 39% approve. Republican leaders also get negative ratings from Republican-leaning independents: 55% disapprove compared with 36% who approve.

Democratic leaders in Congress get higher job ratings from their party’s base than do GOP leaders. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65%) approve of their job performance while 25% disapprove, which is little changed in recent months.

Independents’ ratings of Democratic leaders have worsened since

the early days of the current Congress – but have improved slightly since March. In February 2009, 41% of independents approved and 46% disapproved of the job being done by Democratic leaders. That dropped to 21% approval and 66% disapproval in March 2010. Today, the balance still tilts decidedly negative (28% approve, 59% disapprove).

Assessing Congressional Accomplishments

A plurality of the public (44%) says the current Congress has accomplished about the same amount as other recent Congresses. A third (33%) say it has accomplished less than usual and 18% say it has accomplished more than usual.

In June 2006, the public expressed more negative views of the accomplishments of Congress: 43% said that it had accomplished less than usual, while just 7% said it had accomplished more – less than half the current figure.

As expected, there are wide partisan differences in views of Congress’s productivity. Currently, 51% of Republicans say Congress has accomplished less than usual and 33% say it has accomplished about the same amount. About half of Democrats (52%) say the current Congress has achieved about the same as recent sessions while 26% say it has done more than usual. A plurality of independents (44%) say Congress has accomplished about the same amount as recent sessions; 35% say it has accomplished less.

Four years ago, when the Republican Party controlled Congress, most Democrats (59%) said it had accomplished less than usual. Notably, independents were much more critical of the output of Congress then than they are today. In June 2006, 48% said Congress had accomplished less than usual; 35% of independents say that today.

Among the third of the public as a whole who say the current Congress has accomplished less – a group that tilts heavily Republican and Republican-leaning independent – 49% say Democratic leaders are to blame for this, 16% say Republican leaders and 28% say both. In June 2006, most of those (59%) that said Congress had accomplished less – a group comprised largely of Democrats – mostly blamed Republican leaders

Democrats Still Lead on Most Traits

The Democratic Party continues to be seen by the public as the party more concerned about people like them (50% vs. 34%) and the party that can bring about changes the country needs (45% vs. 33%). While the Democrats’ advantages over the Republican Party on these questions are smaller than they were in the summer of 2009, they are little changed since February of this year.

Democrats continue to hold an edge when people are asked to choose which party selects better candidates for office (43% vs. 35%) and which governs in a more honest and ethical way (41% vs. 31%).

On the critical question of which party can better manage the federal government, Democrats and Republicans are about even (41% say Republicans, 37% say Democrats). In October 2006, Democrats held a 10-point advantage on this question: 44% vs. 34%. In July 1994, a few months before the GOP gained control of Congress, the Republican Party led as the party better able to manage the government (by 43% to 31%).

Currently, 40% of independents say the GOP can better manage the federal government compared with 29% who choose the Democratic Party. Four years ago, in October 2006, the balance of opinion among independents was reversed: 39% chose the Democrats and 29% chose the Republicans.

Republicans Want More Conservative Party

As has been the case since just after the 2008 election, most Republican and Republican-leaning voters (59%) say they want the party’s leaders to move in a more conservative direction; just 35% say they want the GOP leadership to follow a more moderate path.

Similarly, there has been little change in the opinions among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters about the ideological direction of the Democratic party: 53% say Democratic leaders should move in a more moderate direction while 37% say they want their leadership to pursue a more liberal course.

The differing views of Republican and Democratic voters are explained in part by the ideological composition of each party’s supporters. More than six-in-ten (62%) Republican and Republican-leaning voters call themselves conservative, and 78% of these voters want the party to move more in that direction. Two-thirds (67%) of moderate and liberal Republican and

Republican-leaning voters support a more moderate approach, but this group constitutes a much smaller share of the overall Republican base (38% identify themselves as moderate or liberal while 62% say they are conservative).

A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters describe themselves as moderate or conservative ideologically (59%); 39% describe themselves as liberal. Seven-in-ten moderate and conservative Democratic voters (70%) favor the party pursuing a more moderate agenda. Predictably, most liberal Democratic voters favor a more liberal course for the party (58%) over a moderate approach (28%). However, among those at the extreme of each party, liberal Democratic voters are less likely to say they want the Democratic party to move left (58%) than conservative Republican voters are to say they want the GOP to tack right (78%). Republican and Republican-leaning voters who agree with the Tea Party movement are much more likely than other Republicans to think GOP leaders should move in a more conservative direction. Three-quarters (74%) say this; more than three times the number who favor a more moderate approach (23%). Other Republican voters are evenly divided about the party’s ideological direction: 48% of those who disagree with the Tea Party or who do not give an opinion of the movement support a moderate direction for the GOP, while 45% would like to see the party shift right.

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of ABT/SRBI Inc. among a national sample of 1,802 adults living in the continental United States, 18 years of age or older, from June 16-20, 2010 (1,201 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 601 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 256 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2009 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.