Overview

Barack Obama’s approval ratings have suffered major declines. The president’s overall job approval number fell from 61% in mid-June to 54% currently. His approval ratings for handling the economy and the federal budget deficit have also fallen sharply, tumbling to 38% and 32%, respectively. Majorities now say they disapprove of the way the president is handling these two issues. The new poll also finds significant declines over the last few months in the percentage of Americans giving Obama high marks for dealing with health care, foreign policy and tax policy.

Three factors have likely contributed to more negative views of Obama. First, criticisms of the government’s economic policies are mounting. For the first time since Obama took office, as many say the government is on the wrong track (48%) as on the right track (46%) in handling the nation’s economic problems. In May, 53% said the government was on the right track on the economy, while 39% said it was on the wrong track.

Secondly, the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 22-26 among 1,506 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that many of the health care proposals being debated in Congress are sparking negative reactions, especially from those following the debate most closely. By a 44% to 38% margin, more Americans generally oppose than favor the health care proposals now before Congress. Opposition rises to 56% among people who say they have heard a lot about legislation to overhaul the health care system. Concerns about the costs and increased government involvement in the health care system are volunteered most often by Americans critical of the health care proposals.

Thirdly, Obama’s comments on the arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr. appear to have played some role in his ratings decline. News about the arrest of the prominent African American Harvard professor at his Cambridge home was widely followed by the public and 79% are aware of Obama’s comments on the incident. Analysis of the poll data found that the president’s approval ratings fell among non-Hispanic whites over the course of the interviewing period as the focus of the Gates story shifted from details about the incident to Obama’s remarks about the incident.¹ Interviews Wednesday and Thursday of last week found 53% of whites approving of Obama’s job performance. This slipped to 46% among whites interviewed Friday through Sunday as the Gates story played out across the nation.

Consistent with this trend, a small re-contact survey conducted Monday night finds a mostly negative reaction, particularly among whites, to Obama’s comments on the controversy, even though the public is closely divided over who was at fault in the original dispute. Based on what people have heard about the incident in Cambridge, 27% of blame Gates, 25% fault the police officer, 13% volunteer both or neither, and 36% offer no opinion. However, more people disapprove (41%) than approve (29%) of the president’s handling of the situation. And by a margin of about two-to-one, more whites disapprove (45%) than approve (22%).

More generally, the new survey shows that since June, Obama’s overall job approval ratings dropped among most political and demographic groups. The greatest declines are apparent among Republicans and independents, poorer people, especially poorer whites, and 30 to 49 year olds. When looking at Obama’s approval ratings on specific issues, the president has lost ground, in most cases, among Republicans, Democrats and independents. Some of the larger declines are among members of his own party.

Yet Obama is widely liked by the public on a more personal level, with close to three-quarters (74%) saying they like the kind of person he is and the way he leads his life. Asked why, among the most frequent responses offered are impressions that he is honest, has integrity, is a good father and is intelligent.

A Reserve of Confidence in Obama

While the American public has grown more critical of Obama’s handling of the economy and budget deficit over the last few months, majorities continue to express optimism about his ability to fix the economy and deal with the budget deficit in the long term. As in June and April, more than six-in-ten (63%) say they are optimistic that Obama’s policies will improve the economy, and more than half (55%) say they are optimistic that he can reduce the budget deficit over time. The views of political independents account in part for the disparity between Obama’s sinking approval ratings and the continued optimism that he will succeed. Independents remain largely optimistic, but critical of the way the president is currently dealing with the economy and budget deficit. In contrast, partisans tend to see it just one way – Democrats mostly approve of Obama’s performance and are overwhelmingly optimistic about his policies. Republicans mostly disapprove and are pessimistic.

In addition, relatively few Americans (21%) believe that Obama’s policies have made the economy worse. About as many, 24% say his policies have made things better. As in previous polls, the largest share (49%) say administration policies have not yet had an effect or that it is too soon to tell. Similarly, although there has been a small uptick in the share saying Obama is trying to address too many issues at once (from 34% in April to 41% today), a plurality (48%) believes he is neither taking on too many nor too few issues.

The poll also finds that while the public is expressing broader disapproval of how Obama is dealing with the budget deficit, majorities continue to give a higher priority to spending more to make health care accessible and affordable, to help the economy recover and to improve education, rather than to reducing the budget deficit. Partisan divisions on these issues remain strong – with most Republicans putting deficit reduction first and most Democrats giving priority to additional spending. Most independents continue to see spending on health care and on education as higher priorities than deficit reduction. They are split as to whether economic stimulus spending or deficit reduction is more important right now.

Reactions to Health Care Proposals

Although the public has a more negative than positive general reaction to the health care proposals being debated on Capitol Hill, there is broad support for many of the core elements of the legislation currently before Congress. Nearly two-in-three (65%) favor requiring that all Americans have health insurance, with the government aiding those who cannot afford it. Nearly as many (61%) favor requiring employers who do not provide insurance to pay into a government health care fund. And there is broad support (79%) for prohibiting insurance companies from denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions.

But reactions to the methods proposed to make sure more people have access to health care coverage are mixed. A thin 52% majority favor a government health insurance plan to compete with private plans. There is broad support (63%), however, for raising the taxes on affluent people to help pay for changes to the health care system. On the other hand, there is equally strong opposition (62%) to new taxes on employees with health insurance benefits above a certain value. Most (58%) also oppose putting tighter restrictions on what medical procedures Medicare and Medicaid will cover.

The poll found that groups that oppose the general legislative proposals – such as Republicans, the elderly and more affluent people – do so by wider margins than backers – such as Democrats, the young and less affluent people – support the proposals.

By a margin of 50% to 23% Americans say that Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor should be confirmed. Her level of public support is much greater than was the case for Samuel Alito (33%) and about the same as support for Chief Justice John G. Roberts (46%) at roughly the same point in their confirmation processes.

Obama’s overall job approval among the public has declined substantially since last month. While a majority (54%) continues to approve of the job he is doing, his rating is down seven points from June (61%).

The drop in approval is particularly steep among 30-to-49-year-olds; today, only about half (49%) of those in this age group approve of Obama’s job performance, a 14-point decline from one month ago. Among other age groups, there has been no significant shift in approval of the president.

Americans with lower annual family incomes (less than $30,000) also hold significantly less positive views of the president’s performance today than they did in June (55% approve today vs. 65% in June). By contrast, there has been little change in the opinions of the more affluent (those with annual incomes of $75,000 or more) over the past month.

As was the case last month, about half of whites (48%) approve of how Obama is handling his job. There has been essentially no shift in opinion among affluent whites, as a 54% majority continues to approve of Obama’s job performance. However, among whites with annual family incomes of less than $75,000, Obama’s approval ratings have declined substantially (from 57% in June to 47% today). Assessments of Obama’s performance remain high among African Americans (85%).

Drop off in Approval Seen Primarily Among Republicans, Independents

Obama’s job rating among independents and Republicans is now significantly lower than at any other point in his presidency. While Democrats are less supportive of Obama on a number of specific issues, overall job approval among Democrats is little changed from earlier in the year.

Republican assessments of Obama’s job performance – already negative since February – have taken a sharp turn for the worse over the past month. Just 19% of Republicans say they approve of his overall job performance, a 12-point drop since June.

At the same time, independent opinion also has become less positive. While a plurality of independents approves of the job Obama is doing (48% approve, 37% disapprove), this is an eight-point decline in approval since June. By contrast, Democrats continue to approve of Obama’s job performance at levels similar to those seen over the course of the last six months.

Approval on Issues

While the balance of opinion about Obama’s overall job performance remains positive (54% approve, 34% disapprove), opinion of how the president is handling most specific issues tested is significantly more negative.

On balance, the public approves of Obama’s handling of foreign policy (47% approve, 32% disapprove), and holds similar opinions about Obama’s handling of the situations in Afghanistan (47% approve, 33% disapprove) and Iraq (47% approve, 38% disapprove). More also approve than disapprove of his performance on energy policy (46% vs. 31%).

However, majorities of the public disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy (53%) and the budget deficit (53%), while opinion is split on Obama’s handling of health care (42% approve, 43% disapprove) and tax policy (39% approve, 42% disapprove).

Bipartisan Declines in Approval on Issues

The drops in Obama’s ratings for specific issues are greater than his overall rating decline in large part because they cross party lines. Since April, Obama’s approval on most of the issues tested has declined more among fellow Democrats than among Republicans.

Just less than four-in-ten Americans (38%) now say they approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, down from 52% in June and 60% in April. In total, this rating has dropped 22 points from April to July.

Democrats started at a very high approval rate for Obama’s handling of the economy – 86% in April – but that rating has dropped 24 points to 62%. Republicans and independents started off at lower approval levels, but both show sizeable declines. In April, 30% of Republicans approved of the president’s approach to the economy; that is now down to 13%. Among independents, 56% approved of Obama’s handling of the economy in April. That has dropped to 33%.

Approval ratings for Obama’s handling of the federal budget deficit show a similar pattern. His performance rating on this issue dropped 18 points since April, going from 50% to 32%. Among Democrats, the decline was from 77% in April to 53% in July, a drop of 24 points. In April, 45% of independents approved of Obama’s handling of the deficit; now just 27% approve. Meanwhile, Republicans started off with a low rate of approval – 19% in April – and dropped lower – to 8% in July, a decline of 11 points.

Ratings for Foreign Policy Issues

Approval for Obama’s handling of foreign policy has slipped from 61% in April to 47% – a decline of 14 points. Among independents, the drop is 20 points – 63% to 43%. Among Democrats, the drop is 17 points – from 83% to 66%. Among Republicans, 27% approve.

On two specific foreign policy issues – Obama’s handling of Iraq and Afghanistan – public approval stands at 47% on each. There is no direct comparison with the April survey. About six-in-ten (62%) Democrats approve of Obama’s handling of Iraq, compared with 38% each of Republicans and independents. A comparable share of Democrats (59%) approves of Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan, compared with 46% of independents and 40% of Republicans.

On Obama’s handling of health care, approval declined 9 points from 51% in April to 42% in July. Among independents, approval on health care is down from 50% in April to 38%, a drop of 12 points. Among Republicans, 21% approved of his handling of the issue in April. Now that is down to 12%. About two-thirds of Democrats (65%) approve of his handling of health care.

Approval for Obama’s handling of tax policy also is down since April, from 50% to 39%. Among Democrats, that rating is down 12 points, dropping from 77% to 65%. Among independents, 31% approve of his handling of tax policy, down from 45% in April. And among Republicans, approval on this issue dropped from 22% to 13% since April.

On energy policy, 46% say they approve of how Obama is handling the issue. That includes 64% of Democrats, 45% of independents and 23% of Republicans.

Public Overwhelmingly Likes Obama Personally

Although Barack Obama’s job approval ratings have declined over the past month, most Americans say they like “the kind of person he is and the way he leads his life.” Nearly three-quarters (74%) personally like Obama, while just 12% say they dislike him.

Obama is particularly well-liked by African Americans, nearly all (98%) of whom say they like his personality and the way he leads his life. Obama’s personal appeal extends to most Democrats (92%) and independents (71%) and a smaller majority (55%) of Republicans. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, more than three-quarters (78%) personally like the president; conservative Republicans are the only group with fewer than half (43%) who say they like Obama personally.

Those who say they personally like Obama cite a variety of reasons. Two-in ten (20%) mention honesty, integrity or forthrightness. About as many (16%) volunteer Obama’s relationship with his family and 13% say they see Obama as “down-to-earth.” Mentions of Obama’s intellect, communication skills and the notion that he is “trying” were each offered by 10% of those making favorable assessments of Obama personally.

Public Remains Optimistic About Obama

Despite the drop in Obama’s overall public approval rating, and, more specifically, approval for his handling of the economy, more than six-in-ten (63%) say they are optimistic that his policies will improve economic conditions in the country. That’s about the same as the 65% that said they were optimistic about his economic policies in June and the 66% that said the same in April.

Among partisans, only about a third of Republicans (32%) say they are optimistic that Obama’s policies will improve economic conditions, down from 43% in June. The share saying they are pessimistic rose from 51% to 60%. Among Democrats and independents there has been no significant change. More than eight-in-ten (84%) Democrats say they are optimistic that Obama’s policies will improve economic conditions. Last month, 85% said the same thing. Among independents, 64% say they are optimistic, compared with 63% in June.

A majority of the public (54%) also says they are optimistic that Obama’s policies will reduce the federal budget deficit over the long term. That share is unchanged from June (55%) and April (54%).

Among Democrats, 79% say they are optimistic that Obama’s policies will reduce the budget deficit over the long term; 78% said the same last month. Among independents, 52% say they are optimistic the president’s policies will bring down the deficit, the same share as in June. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) Republicans say they are pessimistic that Obama will reduce the deficit over the long term.

Limited Effect on Economy So Far

About half (49%) of the public continues to say that Obama’s policies so far have not made economic conditions better or worse. The share saying his policies have had no effect so far – including those who said it was too soon to tell – stood at 53% in June.

But the proportion that says that Obama’s policies have made the economy worse is inching up – from 16% in June to 21% in July. That change comes mostly among independents: 16% said Obama’s policies were making the economy worse in June, while 27% say that now. The overall share that says Obama’s policies have made economic conditions better remains at about a quarter (24%). It had been 26% in June and in mid-April.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are most likely to say that Obama’s policies are making the economy worse (35%). Only 5% of Democrats agree. About four-in-ten Democrats (42%) say Obama’s policies have made economic conditions better, while 44% say there has been no effect so far. Among independents, 21% say the policies have made economic conditions better, while 45% say there has been no effect so far. More than half (54%) of Republicans say administration policies have had no effect so far.

Doing Too Much?

With Obama pushing forward on a wide range of initiatives, the number of Americans that says he is trying to address too many issues at once has increased since the spring. Four-in-ten (41%) say he is trying to do too much; 34% said the same in mid-April. Still, a plurality (48%) says he is doing about right, though that share declined from 56% in April. Small shares in each survey (4% in April, 3% in July) say he is focusing on too few issues.

The share saying Obama is trying to do too much is up across partisan lines. Two-thirds of Republicans (66%) say he trying to address too many issues at once, an increase from 56% in mid-April. Just over two-in-ten (22%) say he is doing about right, down from 30% this spring.

About four-in-ten independents (41%) say Obama is trying to do too much; 46% say he is doing about right, a modest decline from the 54% that said the same in April. Most Democrats (69%) say he is tackling about the right amount, while 25% say he is addressing too many issues. In April, 83% of Democrats said he was doing about right, while 15% said he was trying to address too many issues at once.

A plurality of the public says that Obama is listening more to liberals in his party than Democratic moderates (41% vs. 31%). Last month, 39% said he was listening more to his party’s liberals, while 35% said he was listening more to its moderates.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say that Obama is listening to liberals in his party more than to party moderates (69% vs. 28%). In June, 59% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats said Obama was listening more to liberals in his party. Four-in-ten Democrats (41%) now say he is listening more to party moderates. Just 17% of Republicans agree, down from 25% in June. Among independents, 41% say Obama is listening more to his party’s liberals, while 32% say he is listening to party moderates. That’s about the same as in June.

Sotomayor Maintains Broad Backing

The Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearings in July for Sonia Sotomayor do not appear to have changed many minds about President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. Half of the public says Sotomayor, a veteran appeals court judge of Puerto Rican descent, should be confirmed by the Senate. That matches the share that said she should be confirmed just before the hearings.

About a quarter (23%) say she should not be confirmed, roughly the same as the 25% that said she should not be confirmed in June. Another quarter (27%) say they do not know or refused to answer.

With the panel’s 13-6 vote on the nomination on July 28, Sotomayor appears headed for confirmation by the full Senate. Her public support is comparable to support for Chief Justice John G. Roberts just before he was confirmed in September 2005. At that time, 46% said Roberts should be confirmed, while 21% said he should not. Sotomayor has more support than Samuel Alito did shortly before he was confirmed in January 2006. At that point, 33% said Alito should be confirmed, while 19% opposed his confirmation. Close to half (48%) expressed no opinion on Alito.

Not surprisingly, Sotomayor’s support is strongest among Democrats, with 70% saying she should be confirmed and 6% saying she should not be. Among independents, 45% say she should be confirmed, while 26% oppose her confirmation. A plurality of Republicans (44%) say Sotomayor should not be confirmed, while 35% say she should be.

The developing story about the arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Barack Obama’s comments on the incident occurred while the latest Pew Research Center survey was being conducted. On the first night of interviewing, Wednesday, July 22, Barack Obama commented that the police had “acted stupidly” in his prime-time press conference. By Friday, both Henry Louis Gates and James Crowley – the police officer involved – publicly commented on the issue, and on Friday afternoon Obama followed up on his original remarks by saying he had spoken with Crowley by phone, and had used an unfortunate “choice of words” in his press conference.

An analysis of the press coverage by the Project for Excellence in Journalism finds that media attention to the story built substantially over the week, to a peak of 31% of the overall newshole on Friday. F

urther analysis of the content of the stories found that the news stories through Thursday focused primarily on the facts surrounding Gates’ arrest itself, but by Friday had turned to a focus on Obama’s statements and the appropriateness of his involvement in the issue.

An analysis of public responses over the course of the survey period suggests that Obama’s job approval and personal image may have slipped somewhat – among whites – over the five days the survey was conducted. In interviews conducted Wednesday and Thursday night – largely before the analysis of Obama’s comments became the main part of the story – 53% of white non-Hispanics approved of Obama’s overall job performance, compared with 46% of those interviewed Friday through Sunday. Disapproval among whites edged up from 36% on the first two nights to 42% Friday through Sunday. And the share of whites who say they like the kind of person Obama is slipped from 75% to 69% over the same period.

Whether these changes in Obama’s ratings over the interviewing period are a response to his handling of the Gates affair can only be inferred, not explicitly proven. But a small follow-up study confirms that the vast majority of Americans were aware of Obama’s statements and the general reaction – particularly among whites – was relatively negative. A small re-contact survey conducted Monday night found 46% saying they have heard a lot about Obama’s comments regarding the Gates incident and another 33% have heard a little – just 19% had heard nothing at all about the issue. And substantially more say they disapprove (41%) than approve (29%) of how Obama has handled the situation.

Whites disapprove by a two-to-one margin (45% disapprove, 22% approve). The negative reaction among whites to Obama’s involvement in this incident reaches across party lines. Republicans, not surprisingly, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the situation by a 67% to 15% margin. But 40% of white independents also disapprove compared with just 18% who approve. And even among white Democrats, 83% of whom approve of Obama’s performance overall, nearly as many disapprove (30%) as approve (37%) of how he’s handled this issue.

There is an overwhelmingly negative reaction to Obama’s handling of the Gates issue among whites who heard a lot about Obama’s comments. Seven-in-ten (70%) whites who heard a lot disapprove of how Obama handled the situation, while just 23% approve. In part, this reflects the fact that Republicans were more likely to have h

eard a lot about Obama’s comments.

There is no public consensus with regard to who is to blame for the original incident. When asked who, if anyone, was more at fault in the conflict between Henry Louis Gates and Officer James Crowley, 27% say Gates and 25% say Crowley. Nearly half say they don’t know (36%), or blame both (10%) or neither (3%) parties. The balance tilts slightly toward faulting Gates among whites (29% vs. 22% who blame Crowley) though 10% blame both and another 39% do not assign blame to either.

Reactions to Gates’ arrest are closely linked to partisanship among whites. Half of white Republicans (50%) say Gates was at fault, compared with just 15% of white Democrats. Roughly a third (32%) of white Democrats fault Crowley, compared with just 13% of Republicans.

Despite President Obama’s falling ratings for dealing with the budget deficit, it is not clear that the public’s deficit concerns are uniformly resolute. When asked to think about budget tradeoffs, most Americans continue to place a higher priority on increased federal spending for health care, education and economic recovery than on reducing the budget deficit. For example, on the critical issue of health care, 55% say spending more to make health care accessible and affordable should be a higher priority, while 40% prioritize deficit reduction. These findings are largely unchanged from a 59% to 35% margin on this question in April.

Similarly, more favor increased spending to improve education over deficit reduction by a 57% to 38% margin, also virtually unchanged from three months ago. And on the broad issue of spending more to help the economy recover, just more than half (53%) prioritize stimulus spending, while 38% put a higher priority on cutting the deficit.

The one issue tested that has slipped as a priority is increased spending on new energy technology. The number prioritizing this over deficit reduction has fallen from 49% in April to 41% today, with a majority (52%) now rating deficit reduction as the higher priority.

The biggest partisan difference – 40 points – is over health care. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of Democrats see spending more on health care as the priority, while 23% place a higher priority on deficit reduction. By contrast, 63% of Republicans put deficit reduction ahead of increased health care spending, while 32% favor such spending over trimming the deficit. Just over half (54%) of independents place a higher priority on health care spending while 42% say deficit reduction is more important.

Partisan views are similar, though less polarized, when it comes to education. Most Democrats (69%) and independents (56%) see increased spending on education as more important than deficit reduction, while most Republicans (54%) disagree. Democrats stand apart from both Republicans and independents in saying that stimulus spending is a higher priority than deficit reduction. By a 68% to 23% margin Democrats see spending to help the economy recover as more important than reducing the deficit. By contrast, independents are split about evenly (47% place a higher priority on economic stimulus, 43% on deficit reduction), and a slim majority (52%) of Republicans see deficit reduction as the bigger priority.

No partisan group prioritizes spending on new energy technology over deficit reduction. Democrats are now divided (48% spending, 43% deficit). In April 58% of Democrats saw energy spending as more important. The share of independents placing a higher priority on new energy spending also fell from 49% to 42% since April. Republican views have been more stable – currently 67% say deficit reduction should take priority over spending on new energy technology, virtually unchanged from April.

In addition to the partisan differences, opinion also varies by income and age. Those with lower incomes are more likely to support increased spending on health care than those with higher incomes. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) with family incomes less than $30,000 prioritize increased spending on health care compared with 44% of those earning $75,000 or more. There is a similar pattern when it comes to prioritizing spending on education and economic stimulus over deficit reduction.

Younger people are more likely to favor spending in all four areas (health care, education, energy and economic stimulus) over deficit reduction than older people. The difference is largest for education. Currently 69% of those under 30 prioritize spending to improve education while just 27% say reducing the deficit should be the priority. By comparison, 46% of those 65 and older say spending on education is more important, while nearly as many (45%) say the same about deficit reduction.

Public Generally Opposes Health Care Proposals

Public attention to the health care overhaul debate in Congress continues to grow. This week’s Pew Research Center News Interest Index survey finds that, for the first time, the health care debate in Washington is the public’s top news story. When asked specifically about the bills in Congress to overhaul the health care system, 41% say they have heard a lot about the bills, 47% a little, and only 10% have heard nothing at all.

The public’s current impression of the health care legislation before Congress is more negative than positive. By a slim margin, more Americans say they “generally oppose” (44%) the health care proposals being discussed in Congress right now than “generally favor” them (38%); 18% offer no opinion.

Americans who say they have heard a lot about the health care bills in Congress oppose them by a wide margin (56% to 36% margin. Those who have heard little or nothing about the bills are divided about evenly (40% favor, 35% oppose) with 24% offering no opinion.

Not surprisingly, there is a huge partisan divide on the issue of health care reform. Republicans oppose the health proposals being discussed in Congress by a 76% to 12% margin; Democrats favor them by a 61% to 20% margin. There is currently more opposition (49%) than support (34%) among independents.

These partisan divisions are magnified among Americans who are tracking the issue closely. Republicans who have heard a lot about the health care proposals more universally oppose them than those who have heard a little or nothing at all (87% vs. 65%). And nearly three-quarters (72%) of the Democrats who have heard a lot about the proposals favor them compared with 55% of the Democrats who have heard little or nothing.

But, critically, increased attention to the health care legislation among independents is associated with more opposition, not more support. Independents who have heard a lot about the bills oppose them by a 70% to 27% margin. Independents who have heard little or nothing are divided evenly (38% favor, 35% oppose). Overall, the more attentive independents have a lot more in common with Republicans than with Democrats when it comes to the current legislation in Congress, which tips the overall public balance of opinion in the direction of opposition.

Besides party, income level and whether respondents have health insurance are factors in opinions about the health care legislation being debated on Capitol Hill. More people with higher family incomes oppose the health care proposals than favor them (51% oppose, 35% favor), while those with family incomes less than $30,000 are more divided (44% favor, 36% oppose). Nearly half (48%) of those with health insurance oppose the proposals, compared with only 30% of those who don’t have insurance, a plurality (44%) of whom favor the health care proposals being discussed in Congress. There are also some differences in opinion by race and age but no significant differences by gender or education.

In general, groups that, on balance, oppose the health care legislation tend to do so by substantially larger margins than groups that favor such legislation. For example, Republicans oppose the legislation by a 64-point margin (76% oppose, 12% favor) while Democrats favor the legislation by a 41-point margin (61% favor vs. 20% oppose). The same is true along income lines, with those earning $75,000 or more opposing the bills before Congress by a 16-point margin (51% oppose vs. 35% favor) and those earning less than $30,000 favoring the proposals by a slim 8-point margin (44% favor, 36% oppose). Even when it comes to age, people age 65 and older oppose the reforms before Congress by a 19-point margin (48% oppose vs. 29% favor), while Americans under age 30 are almost evenly divided (44% favor, 39% oppose).

Costs and Government Involvement Biggest Concerns

Two concerns are offered most frequently by people who say they oppose the health care legislation before Congress: the cost and the extent of government involvement. About a quarter (26%) of those who oppose the current reform bills cite the cost and impact on the budget and taxes as the main reason they are against the legislation. Another 18% say the changes would lead to too much government involvement and bureaucracy. A smaller number oppose the current proposals because they believe they would reduce health care quality and access, while restricting people’s choices. There are also expressions of skepticism about the political process: 8% say the bills are too complex and haven’t been explained clearly and 4% express distrust of Congress, Obama and the political decision makers involved.

Of those who favor the health care proposals being discussed in Congress, 42% cite the prospect of providing universal health coverage or covering more people as the reason for their opinion. Another 14% say controlling costs and affordability are the main reasons they back a health care overhaul, while 13% refer more generally to the need for some kind of change.

Public Supports Addressing Many Health Care Reform Goals

While there is more skepticism than support when it comes to the overall proposals before Congress, many of the specific elements being discussed are broadly favored. More than three-quarters (79%) favor requiring insurance companies to sell health coverage to people, even if they have pre-existing medical conditions, and 65% favor requiring that all Americans have health insurance with the government providing financial help for those who can’t afford it. A slim majority (52%) also favors a government health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans, while 37% oppose a government option.

The public is more divided in opinion about the various ways to pay for changes to the health care system. A majority (63%) favors raising taxes on families with incomes of more than $350,000 and individuals earning more than $280,000. A similar number (61%) favors requiring employers to pay into a government health care fund if they do not provide health insurance coverage to their employees.

However, 62% oppose taxing employees whose health insurance benefits are above a certain value. A majority (58%) also opposes tighter restrictions on what medical procedures Medicare and Medicaid will cover.

Partisan Division on Health Care

On virtually every proposal tested, Democrats are substantially more supportive of change than Republicans. The widest gap is over the proposal to mandate insurance with government assistance to those who can’t afford it – something 87% of Democrats favor compared with 41% of Republicans. Independents fall between, with 60% supporting this idea.

Developing a government health care option is also divisive, with 66% of Democrats, 50% of independents and only 36% of Republicans favoring the idea. There are similarly wide divisions over the proposal to tax higher income households as a means to pay for changes to the health care system and requiring employers to pay into a government health fund if they don’t provide insurance for their employees.

There are only a few areas of relative agreement across party lines. Most Democrats (87%) Republicans (72%) and independents (76%) favor requiring insurance companies to cover those with pre-existing conditions. And there is virtually no partisan difference on tightening what medical procedures are covered by Medicare and Medicaid, something which few Democrats (37%) Republicans (31%) or independents (29%) support.

The less affluent are more supportive of three of the key proposals than wealthier Americans. Nearly three-fourths (74%) of those earning less than $30,000 favor requiring Americans to have health insurance if the government provides financial help for those who can’t afford it, compared with 60% of those earning $75,000 or more. There is a similar difference on the issue of raising taxes on individuals and families with high incomes (70% with family incomes of $30,000 or less favor this compared with 57% of those earning $75,000 or more). There is a slightly smaller difference on the issue of requiring employers to pay into a government health care fund; 66% of those earning $30,000 or less favor this proposal, compared with 58% of those earning $75,000 or more.

Attentive Independents Skeptical of Most Reform Proposals

How much people have heard about the bills before Congress is a factor in how they evaluate the various proposals. This is especially true for Republicans and independents; and in both cases those who are hearing the most about the reform proposals express more opposition to the proposals now before Congress. This is not surprising when it comes to Republicans – as more attentive partisans often track with their party’s positions more strongly. But the fact that independents who are hearing more tend to agree with the Republicans is a notable pattern.

For example, independents who have heard a lot about the health care proposals are divided in their opinions about requiring Americans to have health insurance (47% favor and 47% oppose). But among independents who have heard little or nothing overall, 68% favor this idea while only 26% oppose it. A similar pattern is evident on the issue of a government health insurance plan; 57% of independents who have heard a lot oppose this proposal while 58% of those who have heard less favor it.

Independents who have heard a lot are also more likely to oppose various ways of paying for health care reform. At least half of independents who have heard a lot about the proposals oppose raising taxes on the wealthy (53%) and requiring employers who don’t offer health insurance coverage to pay into a government fund (50%), while majorities who have heard a little or nothing favor these ways of paying for health care reform.

Reps Trust Private Insurance Companies; Dems Trust the Government

By a slim margin, the public trusts private insurance companies more than the government when it comes to deciding what kinds of medical procedures should be covered by health insurance (38% vs. 32%). Nearly one-in-five (19%) say they trust neither, another 2% volunteer another response and 8% are unsure.

About six-in-ten Republicans (61%) trust private insurance companies compared with only 14% who trust the government when it comes to deciding what medical procedures health insurance should cover. Conservative Republicans are even more likely to trust private insurance companies (67%) than moderate to liberal Republicans (51%).

By comparison, nearly half (49%) of Democrats trust the government, including 43% of conservative to moderate Democrats and 61% of liberal democrats. About a quarter (27%) of Democrats says they trust private insurance companies more than government. Independents are more divided: 36% say they trust private insurance companies more and 30% say the government.

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a nationwide sample of 1,506 adults, 18 years of age or older, from July 22-26, 2009 (1,129 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 377 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 114 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2008 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the sample.

The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Results for the re-contact survey are based on telephone interviews conducted by landline and cell phone under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The interviews were conducted among a sample of 480 adults, 18 years of age or older, on July 27, 2009. The sample was based on respondents previously interviewed in the main survey from July 22-26, 2009.

The data were weighted using demographic weighting parameters derived from the March 2007 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, along with an estimate of current patterns of telephone status in the U.S. derived from the 2007 National Health Interview Survey. In order to assure comparability of the re-contacted cases with the original sample, the data were also weighted to match the distribution of the July 22-26 sample results on presidential approval and leaned party affiliation. This step helps to minimize bias that could occur because certain types of respondents may have been easier or harder to re-interview. The weighting used an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters.

The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the re-contact survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.