Introduction and Summary

Anti-war sentiment and disapproval of President Bush’s international policies continue to erode America’s image among the publics of its allies. U.S. favorability ratings have plummeted in the past six months in countries actively opposing war ­ France, Germany and Russia ­ as well as in countries that are part of the “coalition of the willing.” In Great Britain, favorable views of the U.S. have declined from 75% to 48% since mid-2002.

In Poland, positive views of the U.S. have fallen to 50% from nearly 80% six months ago; in Italy, the proportion of respondents holding favorable views of the United States has declined by half over the same period (from 70% to 34%). In Spain, fewer than one-in-five (14%) have a favorable opinion of the United States. Views of the U.S. in Russia, which had taken a dramatically positive turn after Sept. 11, 2001, are now more negative than they were prior to the terrorist attacks.

Among possible coalition countries, majorities oppose joining the U.S. to take action against Iraq to end Saddam Hussein’s rule. Even in Great Britain, a 51% majority opposes war. Among the unwilling allies, there is also virtually no potential support for a U.S.- led military effort.

But ironically, most publics surveyed think that in the long run the Iraqi people will be better off and the Middle East will be more stable if Iraq is disarmed and Hussein is removed from power. More than seven-in-ten of the French (73%) and Germans (71% ) see the Iraqi public benefiting. Only in Russia and Turkey is there significant pessimism that war may worsen conditions in the region.

More generally, criticisms of U.S. foreign policy are almost universal. Overwhelming majorities disapprove of President Bush’s foreign policy and the small boost he received in the wake of Sept. 11 has disappeared. As a consequence, publics in seven of the eight nations surveyed believe that American policies have a negative effect on their country. Only the British are divided on the impact of American foreign policy on their country.

While critics of America’s foreign policies mostly blame the president, rather than America more generally, the poll finds strong support for the idea that Western Europe should take a more independent approach to security and diplomatic affairs. Majorities in four of five Western European countries surveyed hold this opinion, and a 48% plurality in Great Britain agrees. In the U.S., by contrast, 62% believe diplomatic and security ties with Western Europe should remain as close as they have been.

There is more of a consensus on both sides of the Atlantic about the continued importance of the United Nations. Majorities in the U.S. and Western Europe (except for Spain) think it still plays an important role in addressing global conflicts, despite the controversy over Iraq. That view is not shared in Russia and Turkey, and even in the U.S., where as many as a third see the U.N. as less important. Republicans, in particular, are divided about the continued importance of the U.N. More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) think the Iraq crisis has shown it to be less important.

The latest survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project interviewed more than 5,500 people in the United States and eight other countries from March 10-17. See page 8 for a full description of the methodology.

81% in Spain Oppose War

Outside of Great Britain, the prospect of war in Iraq draws substantial ­ in many cases overwhelming ­ opposition. Among other U.S. allies, publics reject participating in a military coalition against Iraq by much wider margins. The Spanish oppose joining an allied military action against Iraq by more than six-to-one (81%-13%). Fewer than a quarter of Italians and Poles (17%, 21%) favor their governments joining the U.S. and other nations in taking military action against Iraq.

In Germany roughly a quarter (27%) favor military action, unchanged since November. In France, where just a third of respondents favored military action against Iraq in November, support for that option has dropped to 20%.

Support for military action was gauged in two ways. In Great Britain, Italy, Spain and Poland ­ the so-called “coalition of the willing” ­ respondents were asked whether they favored or opposed their country joining other allies in taking military action against Iraq. In France, Russia, Germany and Turkey ­ whose governments have ruled out such participation ­ respondents were asked their opinion of “the U.S. and other allies” using force against Iraq.

Turks More Suspicious of U.S. Motives

Nearly nine-in-ten respondents in Russia and Turkey oppose war in Iraq. And since November, Turks have grown more suspicious of U.S. motives for why the United States wants to use force against Iraq. Six-in-ten Turkish respondents now believe that U.S. military action against Iraq is part of a broader U.S. war against unfriendly Muslim nations, an increase from 53% who held that opinion in November. Fewer than a quarter of Turks (22%) accept the administration’s stated rationale for war, that it will lead to greater stability in the Middle East.

A majority of Turks (52%) also believe the nation’s parliament made the right decision a few weeks ago in turning down a U.S. request to use Turkish bases as a staging ground for attacks on Iraq. About four-in-ten (37%) think the parliament made the wrong decision. In November, Turks signaled their strong opposition to the U.S. using Turkey’s bases for the war; just 13% favored that idea, while 83% were opposed. (See “What the World Thinks in 2002,” Dec. 4, 2002).

War Will Bring Long-Term Stability

Despite the broad opposition in Europe to war, there is considerable agreement that disarming Iraq and removing Saddam Hussein from power will ultimately improve the lot of Iraq’s people and lead to more stability in the Middle East. Fully eight-in-ten Americans believe that the people of Iraq will be better off if Saddam is deposed, and there is broad agreement on this point among Western Europeans.

Moreover, solid majorities in the U.S., Great Britain and Germany agree that the Middle East will eventually become more stable if Iraq is disarmed and Saddam Hussein is removed from power. This view is not as prevalent in France, Italy and Poland, although pluralities in each of these countries believe Hussein’s ouster could lead to greater regional stability. Spanish respondents are more divided on this question (38% more stable/29% less stable).

Russians, Turks Much More Pessimistic

In Russia and Turkey, by contrast, there is far less optimism that war in Iraq will improve the lives of people in that country or result in stability in the Middle East. Just one-in-five Russians think Hussein’s ouster and the disarmament of Iraq will improve the lives of people there, while roughly the same number (21%) expect Hussein’s departure to stabilize the Middle East.

Turkish respondents also are much more pessimistic than Americans and other Europeans about the aftermath of war. Majorities of Turks believe the Iraqi people will be worse off (52%) and the Middle East will be less stable (56%), if Iraq is disarmed and Hussein is removed.

U.N. Still Relevant

For the most part, respondents in the U.S. and Europe say that despite the diplomatic impasse over Iraq, the U.N. still plays an important role in dealing with international conflicts. Fully seven-in-ten Germans say the U.N. remains important in spite of the disagreements over Iraq, and smaller majorities in France, Great Britain, the U.S. and Italy agree. Spanish respon dents are divided; 41% say the U.N. is still relevant and about the same number disagree.

Again, Russians and Turks take a different view. A solid majority of Russians (57%) and nearly half of Turks (47%) think that the U.N. has lost luster because of Iraq crisis. Fewer than three-in-ten in both of those countries believe the U.N. still plays an important role in addressing global conflicts.

U.S. Policy’s Negative Impact

With the exception of the British, most respondents report that American foreign policy is having a negative effect on their country. This sentiment is strongest in Turkey, where roughly two-thirds (68%) feel this way. Opinion is also predominantly negative in France (63%), Germany (59%), and Russia (58%), though attitudes have moderated slightly in France and Germany over the past two months. And pluralities in Spain and Poland (49%, 41% respectively) say U.S. policies are having a negative impact.

The British are divided about the impact of American foreign policy (39% see it as negative, 38% positive). This reflects a positive shift since January when only 30% of Britons thought U.S. policy was having a good impact, according to a survey by Gallup International.

Bush, Not America, Blamed

The publics of Western Europe are more apt to blame President Bush for the negative impact of U.S. policy than to blame America in general. Among those saying U.S. foreign policy is having a bad effect on their country, about three-quarters of the French (76%) and two-thirds of Germans (68%) blame the president. Relatively small minorities in both countries (15% in France and 30% in Germany) blame America in general.

Just over half of the British (56%), Italians (52%) and Spanish (53%) also place responsibility solely on Bush. But outside of Western Europe, people are more inclined to blame the negative impact of U.S. policies more generally on America. Almost half of Russians and Turks (48%), and four-in-ten Poles think America itself is to blame for the damage U.S. foreign policy causes in their country.

U.S. Views on Iraq Polarizing

In the United States, support for military action in Iraq dropped over the past two months, from 68% in January to 59% in the days leading up to the president’s March 17 speech on Iraq (March 13-16). Opposition to military action rose five points over the same period (from 25% in January to 30% today).

American views on how to deal with Iraq have crystallized as the prospects for war have increased. While the percent opposing military action in Iraq inched upwards, support for unilateral action also increased. In the latest survey, nearly four-in-ten Americans (38%) favored military action in Iraq even without allied support. That was unchanged from last month, but significantly higher than in January and throughout 2002.

Just 16% of Americans said they support military action only if allies agree to participate. More than twice as many (37%) expressed contingent support for military action two months ago.

The hardening of opinion on Iraq also is reflected in the increasingly partisan cast to perceptions of the war and the president’s leadership. Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike have moved away from contingent support for military action (only with allies), but in opposite directions. With war approaching, fully 44% of Democrats said they oppose military action in Iraq, up from 30% two months ago, as fewer believe that military action with allied support is a viable option. Both Republicans and independents moved in the opposite direction. In both groups, a greater number favored U.S. military action even without the support of allies, while the percent opposing war did not change.

U.S. Public Split Over Bush’s Message

Prior to Bush’s Monday night speech on Iraq, about half of Americans (49%) felt the president had explained the stakes clearly, while 47% said he had not. These evaluations were somewhat worse than a month ago. At that time, shortly after the president’s State of the Union address and Secretary of State Powell’s address to the U.N. Security Council, just four-in-ten said the president had not explained the reasons for war clearly enough.

As with overall views on military action, evaluations of the president’s leadership on this issue have become increasingly partisan. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Democrats said the president has failed to explain his reasons clearly, up from 58% in February. Three-quarters of Republicans believed he has made the case completely. Like Democrats, most independents (54%) expressed reservations about the president’s ability to explain the issues clearly, up from just 42% a month ago.

International Support Insufficient

[Note: U.S. polling completed March 16, 2003, before the U.S. announced it would not seek another U.N. resolution on Iraq.]

As was the case in February, a U.N. resolution was not seen as a necessity in the view of most Americans. If the U.S. and most of its allies were to back the use of force against Iraq, but the U.N. resolution were to be vetoed by one or two countries who oppose it, just 24% said the administration should abide by such a veto. Roughly the same proportion (25%), representing about half of those who favored seeking a new resolution, said the U.S. should go ahead with military action if most allies are on board and the U.S. thinks it is the right thing to do.

While Americans expressed a need for more international support for military action in Iraq, there was little evidence that the public viewed continued inspections as a viable option. Most remained skeptical about even the possibility that weapons inspections would lead to effective disarmament in Iraq. Six-in-ten thought the inspections have already shown that Iraq cannot be peacefully disarmed. Just half as many (28%) said it was too early to tell whether Iraq will cooperate.

Results for the nine-nation survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide, representative sample of 1,032 adults, 18 years of age or older, in the United States, 962 in Britain, 485 in France, 524 in Germany, 500 in Italy, and 503 in Spain. In Russia, 501 telephone interviews were conducted in urban areas of 500,000 or greater. In Poland, the interviews were conducted face-to-face in urban areas with 500 adults. In Turkey, the nationwide survey was conducted face-to-face among 513 adults. The fieldwork was conducted by NOP in Britain between March 14-16, 2003, by IFOP in France between March 13-14, 2003, by EMNID in Germany between March 14-15, 2003, by Pragma in Italy between March 12-14, 2003, by Romir in Russia between March 12-14, 2003, by Democopia in Spain between March 12-17, 2003, by Demoskop in Poland between March 10-14, 2003, by PIAR in Turkey between March 10-17, 2003, and by Princeton Data Source in the U.S. between March 13-16, 2003. For results based on the total sample in the United States and Britain, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; in each of the other seven countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Russia and Turkey), sampling error is plus or minus 5 percent age points.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

About the Pew Global Attitudes Project

This poll is part of the Pew Global Attitudes Project. The project’s first major report, “What the World Thinks in 2002,” focusing on how people view their lives, their countries and the world, was released Dec. 4, 2002. It and other international polling by the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press are available online at www.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics.

“The Pew Global Attitudes Project” is a series of worldwide public-opinion surveys that measure the impact of globalization, modernization, rapid technological and cultural change and the Sept. 11 terrorist events on the values and attitudes of more than 38,000 people in 44 countries worldwide. It will be conducted and released over the course of two years.

The Project is chaired by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright. Andrew Kohut, director of The Pew Research Center For The People & The Press, is the project director. An international advisory board – consisting of regional experts, academics, activists, and business and government leaders and chaired by Sec. Albright – provides guidance in shaping the surveys. Team members include Bruce Stokes, a columnist at the National Journal; Mary McIntosh, vice-president of Princeton Survey Research Associates; and Elizabeth Mueller Gross and Nicole Speulda, of the Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center staff Carroll Doherty, Michael Dimock, Scott Keeter, Nilanthi Samaranayake and Peyton Craighill also contributed to this report. The Global Attitudes Project is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, with a supplemental grant from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.