Introduction and Summary

As 1996 drew to a close Americans were evaluating their lives much the way they have over the past four decades during good economic times. Most feel they have made personal progress over the past five years, and most are optimistic about the future. Financial stability, good health and a strong family life are the things that people hope for and worry about as they have in the past. While the public’s self evaluation is very familiar, its appraisal of the nation is strikingly different. Americans are much less positive about the state of the country than they have been in 15 years, and they are even more pessimistic about the prospects for “national progress.”

The factors that shape the public’s sense of the state of their nation are also quite different than they once were. Worries about the Cold War and international competition with the Soviet Union have given way to concern about seemingly intractable moral and social problems. Further, partisanship and political views now animate views about the country’s future much more than they once did.

These are the findings of a special Pew Research Center nationwide survey of 1,204 adult Americans conducted in mid- November in conjunction with the PBS State of the Union series. Respondents were asked to rate their personal lives and the state of the nation using a series of questions employed by survey researchers since 1959.¹ In previous surveys Americans usually rated their own lives higher than that of the country as a whole.² In 1996, however, the gap between optimism about personal future and about the country’s future is unprecedented.

Americans’ optimism about their own present and future is at near record levels. They score their personal circumstances today and five years ahead, as positively as they did in the mid-1980s, during the Reagan economic boom years.

In contrast, they rate the state of the nation today nearly as low as in bad economic times or when political scandal soured the public mood. Just once in four decades of polling has the public rated the current state of the union substantially lower than today — in 1974, when the Watergate scandal demoralized the country.

[*NOTE: On an 11 point scale.]

The public’s lack of a sense of national progress is more than matched by its lack of optimism about the country’s future course. When asked to look forward five years and estimate where the country will be at that time, respondents gave a lower average rating (5.7) than did participants in all 12 previous surveys conducted over the last 36 years. In fact, the only survey yielding a comparable level of national pessimism, again, was conducted during the Watergate era (April 1974).

In percentage terms, 41% are optimists about the nation’s future, while 33% are pessimists. This compares starkly to 55% who are optimists about their personal lives, while only 13% are pessimists. Historically, the gap between these two measures is at an all time high.

Partisanship Colors Outlook

The greater politicalization of the country today is playing a significant part in the extent of pessimism observed in the survey. Only Clinton voters and Democrats tend to be optimistic about where the country is headed. Dole voters, Perot voters, and Republicans tend to be pessimistic, while non-voters and Independents divide about evenly between optimists and pessimists. For example, Democrats rate the country’s future substantially higher than Republicans do (6.4 vs. 5.0). While the ratings of Independents fall between those of members of the two parties (5.5).

In contrast, in a comparable Gallup survey in 1972, those who identified with the Republican Party of incumbent Richard Nixon rated the country’s future only slightly higher than those aligned with his Democratic opposition (a mean rating of 6.6 vs. 6.3). More recently, in 1989 the partisan gap in the ratings for the country’s future was smaller than it is today, but greater than it had been in 1972 (6.8 for Republicans vs. 6.0 for Democrats).

The impact of partisanship on the outlook of Americans for their country seems to fly in the face of post-election polls that show a solid second honeymoon for Bill Clinton. But, the historical reality is that Clinton is getting less of a public opinion lift than other presidents who have been returned to office in recent years. With depressed voter turnout and a third party presidential candidate drawing votes away from both major party nominees, only about one in four adult Americans personally voted to return Clinton to the White House. The President’s current approval rating of 57% may be among his highest to date, but it is the lowest rating for any president since World War II recorded immediately after re-election to a second term.

And Different Problems…

The end of the Cold War and the absence of an external enemy may also be a significant factor in the increasingly pessimistic and partisan view of the country. In previous surveys when respondents were asked to express in their own words their hopes and fears for the nation, worries about war and peace dominated the answers. Today Americans put more relative emphasis on hopes for economic progress, reductions in crime, and improved public morality. While hopes and worries about peace and national security are much less prevalent than in the 1960s and 70s,³ there are also significantly fewer mentions of social progress and improvements to the environment.

With a greater focus on domestic issues, national progress is less apparent to Americans. For example, pluralities or majorities think the country is losing ground on 15 of 17 problem areas tested in this survey. Even in areas where objective indicators show gains (deficit reduction and lower crime rates) most respondents in the survey said these problems are worsening.

The Morality Crisis Fuels Pessimism

Three of the four national problems that over 60% of survey respondents say are increasing in severity relate to moral and social decline: crime (61%), drugs (64%), and low moral and ethical standards (62%). Half (52%) also believe the quality of the public schools is deteriorating.

Perceptions of a nation overwhelmed by moral and social problems are strongly linked to pessimism about the country’s future. By a margin of 74% to 54%, pessimists are more likely than optimists to believe that crime is becoming a worse problem nationally. Crime is the one concern found to be driving pessimism among all major political subgroups, including those who voted for Clinton, those who voted for other presidential candidates, and those who decided not to vote at all. Eight in ten (79%) pessimists predict that the crime rate will be higher in the year 2000.

When asked to describe their wishes or hopes for the country’s future in their own words, pessimists are more likely than optimists to call for more morality in society or greater influence of religion (15% vs. 7%). Pessimists more often say that low moral and ethical standards are a growing national problem (71% vs. 60%). Concern about falling morals and ethics ranks second only to increasing crime in explaining pessimism among Dole/Perot voters.

Pessimists are also significantly more likely than optimists to believe the country is losing ground on the drug problem (73% vs. 60%) and the quality of public education (61% vs. 49%). By a wide margin, pessimists more often predict that the public education system will get worse by the year 2000 (51% vs. 29%). Among Clinton voters and non-voters, concern about falling behind on education is one of the major factors characterizing pessimists. Perception of a worsening drug problem is another contributor to pessimism among Clinton voters.

Entitlement Worries

Americans seem unaware of — or take little comfort from — reports of recent progress in deficit reduction. Although down from 60% in 1995, about half (48%) the public still believes the country is losing ground in dealing with the deficit; only about a quarter (23%) see progress on this front. There is widespread concern about the potential for a future fiscal crisis in Social Security and Medicare: about two-thirds (65%) believe the country is losing ground in its efforts to keep these entitlement programs financially sound. Over two-thirds (70%) predict this problem will get worse by the year 2000.

One of the biggest differences between pessimists and optimists is in perceptions of the federal budget deficit. Pessimists are more likely than optimists to believe the country is losing ground in dealing with the deficit (63% vs. 41%), and to feel the deficit is having a major impact on their own lives (34% vs. 23%). Pessimists are also more likely to think the country is losing ground in keeping Social Security and Medicare financially sound (75% vs. 61%) and to believe these entitlement programs will be in worse financial shape by the year 2000 (81% vs. 66%).

While pessimistic Dole/Perot voters are more worried about moral and social decline, pessimistic Clinton voters are concerned about the deficit and threats to entitlement programs. Among Clinton voters, pessimists are more likely to think the country is losing ground on the deficit (55% vs. 28%) and the financial soundness of Social Security/Medicare (77% vs. 53%) and to predict that old-age entitlement programs will be in worse shape by the year 2000 (77% vs. 57%).

Will the Economic Recovery Last?

Only in the last year have Americans begun to acknowledge improvement in the national economy, and there is fear that improved economic conditions will not last. Although people feel personally more financially secure these days, majorities see job security (58%), high taxes (55%), and poverty/homelessness (54%) as growing problems at the national level, and half (51%) see the country falling behind in the availability of good paying jobs.

The public is divided over whether the economy will be stronger (53%) or weaker (42%) by the year 2000. One of the biggest differences between those with pessimistic and optimistic views of the nation’s future is in expectations for the national economy. Six in ten (59%), compared with only a third (33%) of optimists, predict a weaker economy.

Pessimists of all political persuasions more often than optimists foresee a worse economy ahead. Among non-voters, pessimism is also associated with the belief that high taxes and lack of good paying jobs are growing problems. Poverty and homelessness are national problems linked to pessimism among Clinton voters.

Continued Concern about Health Care

Although the public ultimately rejected Bill Clinton’s ambitious health care reform proposals, health care persists as a public concern — especially for those with bad feelings about the country’s future. Roughly half of American adults (52%) now think the country is losing ground in the way the health care system is working, while less than a quarter (20%) see progress being made. The managed care revolution has not done much to make people confident that health care costs will be brought under control. Looking ahead to the year 2000, six in ten (61%) think health care will be less affordable than it is now.

Pessimists about the nation’s future are more likely than optimists to believe that health care will be less affordable by the year 2000 (71% to 54%). Concern about health care costs ranks as one of the major factors distinguishing pessimists from optimists among non-voters, who may see gridlock between Republicans and Democrats as the legacy of the 1994 health care debate.

Political Reform

Americans rate the power of special interest groups in politics as about as great a threat to the future of country as international terrorism and illegal aliens. Half (49%) feel the country is losing ground in its efforts to fight political corruption. The most positive indication in the survey was that respondents were at worst divided over whether the campaign finance system will be reformed by the year 2000 — 47% thought it would be achieved, 46% thought not. Only a majority of Democrats (55%) and Clinton voters (54%) expect reform to happen in the next four years. Non-voters with a pessimistic view of the country’s future were especially bearish on the prospects for reform (37%).

Ambivalence about Government and the News Media

The public is unsure about what national problem deserves the top priority for government action. Moreover, many perceive government as part of the problem as well as the solution. Seven in ten (70%) Americans think a major role for government is critical to a better future for the country — more than see a similar role for big corporations (59%), small businesses (51%) and religion (52%). However, at a time when confidence in political leaders is very low, people’s reservations about government are also apparent. More than four in ten (43%) say government is a major threat to the country’s future. Evaluations of the news media were similarly double barreled. Half (50%) of the Pew sampling felt news organizations would play a big role in the country’s improvement, while almost as many (39%) thought the media represented a major threat to the country’s future.

Post-industrial Americans put the most faith in science and technology and academia to bring about positive change. Three- quarters of adults interviewed think science and technology (77%) and schools and universities (77%) must play a major role if this country is to have a better future. One of the few signs of optimism about the country’s future is the majority opinion (59%) that public education will improve by the year 2000. And there is less concern about technology having adverse effects on society than there is about the role of government. Only three in ten Americans (29%) regard “the pace of technological change” as a major threat to the country’s future.

The survey results are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,204 adults, 18 years of age or older, during the period November 22 – December 1 , 1996. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For results based on either Form 1 (N=600) or Form 2 (N=604), the sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Survey Methodology in Detail

The sample for this survey is a random digit sample of telephone numbers selected from telephone exchanges in the continental United States. The random digit aspect of the sample is used to avoid “listing” bias and provides representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including not-yet-listed). The design of the sample ensures this representation by random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of their area code, telephone exchange, and bank number.

The telephone exchanges were selected with probabilities proportional to their size. The first eight digits of the sampled telephone numbers (area code, telephone exchange, bank number) were selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that county’s share of telephone households in the U.S. Estimates of the number of telephone households within each county are derived from 1990 Census data on residential telephone incidence that have been updated with state-level information on new telephone installations and county-level projections of the number of households. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. A working bank is defined as 100 contiguous telephone numbers containing three or more residential listings.

The sample was released for interviewing in replicates. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample.

At least four attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of making a contact with a potential respondent. All interview breakoffs and refusals were re-contacted at least once in order to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. In each contacted household, interviewers asked to speak with the “youngest male 18 or older who is at home”. If there is no eligible man at home, interviewers asked to speak with “the oldest woman 18 or older who lives in the household”. This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender.

Non-response in telephone interview surveys produces some known biases in survey- derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population, and these subgroups are likely to vary also on questions of substantive interest. In order to compensate for these known biases, the sample data are weighted in analysis.

The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most recently available Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (March 1994). This analysis produced population parameters for the demographic characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample characteristics to construct sample weights. The analysis only included households in the continental United States that contain a telephone.

The weights are derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters.