Publics in advanced and emerging economies alike generally agree that growing trade and business ties with other nations are good for their country, at least in theory. But far fewer are convinced that increased trade results in more jobs, higher wages or lower prices at home – all benefits frequently touted by economists and proponents of international trade.

Americans and publics in advanced economies are especially skeptical of trade’s role in boosting wages – only about three-in-ten in the United States and across the other advanced economies surveyed subscribe to this view. Slightly more Americans think trade lowers prices and generates new jobs (37% and 36%, respectively). Among the other advanced economies polled, a median of 47% link trade to job creation, while 28% say prices decrease thanks to trade.

People in emerging markets are even more dubious of trade’s impact on prices – a median of just 18% in these countries say it drives prices lower. But publics across the nine emerging markets surveyed are enthusiastic about trade’s other economic benefits: A median of 56% think trade leads to more jobs and 47% say it improves wages.

These are among the key findings from a Pew Research Center survey conducted among 30,133 respondents in 27 countries from May 14 to Aug. 12, 2018. The nations included in the survey account for roughly two-thirds of the global gross domestic product.

In many of the 22 nations polled in both 2014 and 2018, public views of trade’s impact on jobs and wages have not changed substantially. But there are exceptions. In the U.S., the share of adults who believe trade creates jobs has risen 16 percentage points over the past four years. In Poland, it has increased 10 points. Conversely, faith that trade generates employment has fallen 26 points in Argentina and 20 points in Tunisia.

Similarly, the belief that growing international trade and business ties boost wages is up 14 percentage points among Americans since 2014. Among Poles, it is up 14 points. Again, public opinion in Tunisia and Argentina has moved in the opposite direction. The share of Tunisians who say trade increases wages is down 22 percentage points and the share of Argentines who hold that view is down 13 points.

In many of the 22 nations polled in both 2014 and 2018, public views of trade’s impact on jobs and wages have not changed substantially. But there are exceptions. In the U.S., the share of adults who believe trade creates jobs has risen 16 percentage points over the past four years. In Poland, it has increased 10 points. Conversely, faith that trade generates employment has fallen 26 points in Argentina and 20 points in Tunisia.

Among the 27 nations surveyed in 2018, attitudes toward trade are closely associated with education and income levels. In 19 countries, those with higher levels of education are more likely than those with less education to think trade creates jobs.¹ In 20 countries, those with an income higher than the national median are more likely than those with an income below that line to believe trade generates employment.²

More broadly, views on trade seem to reflect a public’s general economic mood. Globally, among respondents who think their economy is doing well, a median of 53% across 24 countries say trade creates jobs and 39% believe it increases wages. Among those publics who say their economy is doing poorly, just 43% believe trade generates jobs and 29% say it boosts wages.

CORRECTION (December 2018): The data in this report and the accompanying topline have been corrected to reflect a revised weight for Australia in 2018. The changes due to this adjustment are very minor and do not materially change the analysis of the report.

Americans divided on trade

Since at least 2002, more than half of Americans have embraced the idea that growing trade and business ties between the United States and other nations is a good thing. Today, more than seven-in-ten Americans (74%) hold this view, up from 68% in 2014.

Even though most Americans are open to trade as a matter of principle, their enthusiasm has long trailed that in some other countries. Trends in the U.S. and nine other countries surveyed regularly since 2002 reveal a consistent gap between American and international levels of support for trade. Notably, U.S. support for increased trade declined substantially in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, then rebounded sharply in 2009 and has improved since then.

Since at least 2002, more than half of Americans have embraced the idea that growing trade and business ties between the United States and other nations is a good thing. Today, more than seven-in-ten Americans (74%) hold this view, up from 68% in 2014.

Asked specifically about granting access to the U.S. market through negotiated trade deals, Americans support such action less than they do trade in general. In 2018, 56% of Americans say free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have generally been a good thing for the nation, 18 percentage points lower than support for growing trade and business ties. This has been a consistent pattern since this question was first asked in 2009.

Americans also do not believe in many of the purported benefits of trade. Only 36% of Americans think trade creates jobs, 9 points lower than the view in other advanced economies and 20 points less than the median in emerging markets. And 31% of Americans expect trade to raise wages, comparable to the view in other advanced economies but less than the 48% in emerging markets who see trade boosting wages. Americans are more likely than others to believe that trade lowers prices, although just 37% in the U.S. voice that view.

The American public’s views on trade may be evolving, although not at a uniform pace. Since 2014, belief that trade creates jobs has risen (up 16 points), as has the share who say trade increases wages (up 14 points). Yet, over the same period, the view that trade decreases prices has remained essentially the same.

American adults differ in their views of trade by gender, age, education level and income. Men are more likely than women to believe that trade is good and that it creates jobs, boosts wages and lowers prices. Americans ages 18 to 29 are more likely than those ages 50 and older to see trade as good. Those with a college education or more are significantly more likely than those with a high school education or less to believe that trade lowers prices and creates jobs.

Even though they generally see trade in a positive light, Americans also view trade through an increasingly partisan lens. In 2002, Republicans and Democrats agreed overwhelmingly that trade was good for the U.S. By 2009, a larger share of Democrats than Republicans viewed trade positively. And by 2018 the partisan gap had flip-flopped, with Republicans more affirmative about trade. It is noteworthy that Democrats became more positive when Democrat Barack Obama became president and Republicans became more upbeat when their party’s candidate, Donald Trump, was elected.

Against this backdrop, the United States, Canada and Mexico are engaged in a renegotiation of their North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Their publics overwhelmingly think trade is good for their countries, in principle. But, in practice, in no NAFTA nation do a majority of adults believe that trade creates jobs, raises wages or lowers prices. Canadians are more likely than Americans and Mexicans to say that trade generates jobs. And Canadians and Mexicans are less likely than Americans to hold the view that trade lowers prices.

Europeans divided on the benefits of trade

More than eight-in-ten Europeans say trade is good for their country. Such sentiment is up slightly from 2014. Four-in-ten Europeans say international commerce creates jobs, while about a third believe trade leads to job losses. Roughly a third also hold the view that trade undermines wages, more than the share who think it leads to wage increases. And, notably, nearly four-in-ten think trade leads to price increases, significantly more than the portion of Europeans who hold that it contributes to price decreases.

There is little difference among Europeans, with the exception of Italians, about the value of growing trade and business ties between countries. There are more significant differences between countries of the European Union on the impact of trade.

While 61% of Dutch and Poles say trade creates jobs, just 32% of French and 17% of Italians agree. Such sentiment is largely unchanged in most European nations since 2014, although belief that trade creates jobs is up in Poland by 10 points. The share of Poles saying trade raises wages is also up 14 points, while it has remained steady elsewhere. And while roughly half of Swedes think trade lowers prices, a quarter or fewer of Italians, Spanish and Poles agree.

Notably, trade skepticism is not a defining sentiment among supporters of populist parties in most European nations, with some exceptions. Supporters of the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands are less likely than others to believe that trade creates jobs or raises wages. And in France, those who back National Rally (formerly known as the National Front) are more likely to voice the view that trade destroys jobs and increases prices than are others.

Japanese support trade, but are wary of its impact on prices

Like most Americans and Europeans, seven-in-ten Japanese adults believe that growing trade and business ties between Japan and other countries is a good thing. Such views have not changed much in the past four years. About a third of Japanese are of the opinion that trade kills jobs, while fewer say it creates jobs. But the share of Japanese blaming trade for job losses has declined since 2014. And by more than two-to-one, Japanese assert that trade leads to wage decreases rather than wage increases.

The most significant change in Japanese public opinion regarding trade has to do with its impact on prices. Roughly four-in-ten Japanese adults think trade leads to price increases, nearly double the share who says it lowers prices. And that portion has grown by 16 percentage points since 2014, despite the fact that Japan’s inflation rate has hovered below 1% for years.

Japanese men are more likely than women to believe that trade is good for Japan. Three-in-ten Japanese ages 18 to 29 say trade lowers prices, around twice the share of their elders, those ages 50 and older, who credit trade with restraining inflation. Japanese with a postsecondary education or more and an income above the national median are more likely than others to say trade lowers prices and creates jobs.

Publics around the world broadly accept the premise that trade is good for their society. Across the 27 nations surveyed, a median of 85% say growing trade and business ties with other countries is a good thing for their nation, with no major distinction between views in advanced economies and emerging markets. This includes at least nine-in-ten adults in the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, South Korea and Kenya. The least supportive are Argentine adults, and even among them more than half see trade as good. There has been a significant decline in Argentine belief that trade is good, down 18 percentage points since 2010. But in most countries pro-trade sentiment is largely unchanged.

In only a handful of countries have views of trade changed significantly over the past four years. Belief that trade is beneficial for the country has gone up 10 points in France and 9 points in Indonesia. And such views are down 14 points in Argentina and 12 points in Tunisia.

In six of 18 advanced economies, half or more of the public thinks trade leads to employment creation. Those who are most likely to see trade as a job generator are the Dutch and the Poles. Since 2000, both trade of goods and services and exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) have gone up significantly in both nations. The portion of the adult population that is employed remained relatively unchanged in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2017, but in Poland that share has gone up by more than 6 percentage points, suggesting that, at least in Poland, faith in trade as a job creator may reflect recent experience.

Meanwhile, more than half the adults in both Argentina and Italy say trade destroys jobs. In both nations trade and exports as a portion of GDP have gone up since the beginning of the century. And the share of the population in each country that is employed is relatively unchanged.

More than half the public in emerging markets believes trade creates employment. Those who most enthusiastically embrace international commerce as a job maker include roughly two-thirds of Tunisians and Kenyans. Notably, their experiences have been quite different. In Tunisia, total trade as a percentage of GDP and exports as a share of the economy have gone up since 2000. But the employment rate in Tunisia is effectively unchanged. In Kenya, trade and exports as a portion of the GDP have gone down, while the employment rate has fallen more than 5 points.

A respondent’s level of education markedly affects his or her views of the relationship between trade and employment. In 19 of the 27 countries surveyed, those with a higher level of education are more likely than those with less education to believe that trade creates jobs. The largest divides in public views of the impact of trade on employment are in Mexico, with a 20-point difference, and in Russia, at 19 points.

Gender also plays a role in such sentiment. In nine of 27 nations, men are more likely than women to believe that trade creates jobs. This includes an 18-point gender gap in Sweden, a 17-point differential in Brazil and a 15-point divide in Australia.

In 20 of 27 countries, those with an income higher than the median in their nation are more likely than those with a lower income to believe that trade creates jobs. This includes majorities of upper-income adults in Canada, Hungary, Indonesia, Israel, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea and Spain. In some countries, the difference in views between those with a higher income and those with a lower income can be quite large: 19 points in Germany, 18 points in the Netherlands and 16 points in Canada, Hungary and Brazil.

Publics in advanced economies are divided about the impact of trade on wages. A median of 31% say international commerce boosts wages, including 56% of South Koreans and 52% of Poles. A median of 27% believe trade lowers wages. And another 35% think it has no influence on paychecks.

Adults in emerging markets are more likely to credit trade with boosting wages. By more than two-to-one they believe it leads to wage increases. This includes majorities in Kenya and India.

The recent performance of a country’s economy and the views of its public on the impact of trade on wages are related. The faster an economy grew on average between 2014 and 2017, the greater the likelihood that adults in that society hold the view that trade boosts wages. This is particularly the case in India and Kenya. In nations such as Italy and France, where economic growth has been slow in recent years, few members of the public believe trade leads to higher wages.

It is a fundamental principle of modern free-market economic theory that trade enhances competition and thus enables consumers to enjoy lower prices than they would have to pay if they depended solely on domestic production of the goods and services they consume.

But in only two of the 27 nations surveyed –Israel and Sweden – does half or more of the public believe that trade decreases prices. In eight countries, half or more of adults say trade increases prices. Notably, publics in 25 nations believe that trade either increases prices or makes no difference in domestic price levels, sentiments contrary to what most economists claim.

In six of the 27 countries surveyed, young people, those ages 18 to 29, are significantly more likely than those ages 50 and older to think trade lowers prices. The most notable are again in Sweden, where there is a 21-percentage-point difference between young people’s views and those of their elders, and the Netherlands, where the difference in views between age groups is 27 points.

In 9 of 27 nations men are more likely than women to believe that trade contributes to lower prices. But only in Sweden does that represent a majority of men.

In 11 of the countries, those with a higher level of education are more likely than those with less education to believe that trade lowers prices. Yet even then, only in Israel and Sweden do majorities of adults with a higher level of education say that international trade decreases prices.

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals.

Bruce Stokes, Director, Global Economic Attitudes

James Bell, Vice President, Global Strategy Alexandra Castillo, Research Associate Stefan Cornibert, Communications Manager     Claudia Deane, Vice President, Research     Kat Devlin, Research Associate  Moira Fagan, Research Assistant Janell Fetterolf, Research Associate Courtney Johnson, Research Associate Christine Huang, Research Assistant Michael Keegan, Information Graphics Designer David Kent, Copy Editor Clark Letterman, Senior Researcher Martha McRoy, Research Methodologist Patrick Moynihan, Associate Director, International Research Methods Jacob Poushter, Senior Researcher Audrey Powers, Senior Operations Associate Ariana Rodriguez-Gitler, Digital Producer Laura Silver, Senior Researcher                                Christine Tamir, Research Assistant Kyle Taylor, Research Analyst Richard Wike, Director, Global Attitudes Research

About the Pew Research Center’s Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey

Results for the survey are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of D3 Systems, Inc., Kantar Public UK, Kantar Public Korea and Langer Research Associates. The results are based on national samples, unless otherwise noted. More details about our international survey methodology and country-specific sample designs are available here.

Detailed information on survey methods for this report

General information on international survey research

For this report we grouped countries into two economic categories: “advanced” and “emerging and developing.” In the report, this category is referred to as “emerging.” These categories are fairly common in specialized and popular discussions and are helpful for analyzing how public attitudes vary with economic circumstances. However, no single, agreed-upon scheme exists for placing countries into these three categories. For example, even the World Bank and International Monetary Fund do not always agree on how to categorize economies.

In creating our economic classification of the 27 countries in our survey, we relied on multiple sources and criteria. Specifically, we were guided by: World Bank income classifications; classifications of emerging markets by other multi-national organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund; per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP); total size of the country’s economy, as measured by GDP; and average GDP growth rate between 2013 and 2017.

Below is a table that outlines the countries that fall into each of the two categories. The table includes for each country the World Bank income classification, the 2017 GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP) in current prices, the 2017 GDP in current U.S. dollars and the average GDP growth rate between 2013 and 2017.