Right-Wing Populism in the Decade Since Brexit
The results of the June 23, 2016, Brexit vote were a shock to many in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.
By a 52%-48% margin, British voters chose to leave the European Union. With its “Take back control” slogan, the “Vote Leave” campaign tapped into anti-elite sentiments, concerns about immigration and a variety of other discontents, stoking a populist backlash against the political classes in London and Brussels.
In the decade since, right-wing populism has gained influence and support in many European nations.
In France, the National Rally party led by right-wing populist Marine Le Pen held only two of the National Assembly’s 577 seats in 2016. Today, it holds 123 – more than any other party.
In 2016, the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) held zero seats in parliament, and no far-right party had been represented in the Bundestag since World War II. Today, AfD is its second-largest party, holding 150 of the 630 seats.
Giorgia Meloni became prime minister of Italy after her Brothers of Italy party won parliamentary elections in 2022.
Our survey data highlights the degree to which right-wing populist parties in these four countries have become more popular over the past 10 years.
National Rally and AfD get significantly higher ratings today than they did in spring 2016, just before the Brexit vote.
Brothers of Italy has increased in favorability by 10 percentage points since we first asked about it in 2022.
Reform UK gets positive reviews from 32% of the British public – the same share who gave its predecessor, the UK Independence Party, favorable marks in 2016. Favorability toward Reform UK is on par with sentiment toward the country’s establishment parties (Conservative and Labour) as of our spring 2026 survey.
Right-wing populist parties have had a political impact in other European nations over the past decade. These include the Netherlands and Poland, where such parties have led governments or been included in governing coalitions.
Still, it’s important to note that right-wing populists have also faced setbacks. In April, for instance, Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party lost Hungary’s parliamentary elections. Fidesz had previously won four straight national elections.
Over the past decade, commentators have repeatedly assessed and reassessed right-wing populist fortunes in Europe based on the most recent election results. But the bigger story is that, regardless of any specific election outcome, right-wing populists have become a regular feature of the political landscape and significantly disrupted European politics.
In the next year and a half, elections in countries such as France, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden will tell us more about the direction of right-wing populism in Europe.
What has driven support for right-wing populism?
Many factors have shaped the rise of right-wing populism in Europe and elsewhere, including economic frustrations, cultural grievances and anger at the political class.
Frustration with politics
There are many definitions of populism, but most emphasize a belief that “the people” have been led astray by a corrupt elite.
Our surveys over the past decade have regularly found a widespread sense of frustration with, and distrust in, political elites.
| Country | Don’t care | Care |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 85 | 15 |
| Greece | 81 | 17 |
| Hungary | 78 | 19 |
| Italy | 77 | 22 |
| France | 74 | 23 |
| U.K. | 70 | 29 |
| Poland | 69 | 25 |
| Netherlands | 64 | 36 |
| Germany | 63 | 35 |
| Sweden | 43 | 56 |
| 10-country median | 72 | 24 |
In a 2023 survey, majorities in nine of the 10 European countries we surveyed said most elected officials in their country do not care what people like them think. Roughly seven-in-ten or more held this view in Spain, Greece, Hungary, Italy, France, the U.K. and Poland.
According to our 2025 survey, many Europeans said few or none of the elected officials in their country are honest, understand the needs of ordinary people, focus on the most important problems, are ethical, or are well-qualified.
When we asked people in 2023 in Europe and elsewhere to describe in their own words what would make democracy work better, the most common response was changing their country’s political leaders.
Right-wing populists have often emphasized messages about giving ordinary citizens – or at least some ordinary citizens – a stronger voice in politics and more control over political elites. For instance, during the battle over Brexit, the “Vote Leave” campaign’s “Take back control” slogan resonated with many voters who felt the U.K. had ceded too much power to distant European Union elites in Brussels. (For more information on European attitudes toward the EU, see “In several European countries, EU gets more positive ratings today than during Brexit vote.”)
Economic anxieties
A nation’s economic problems can create challenges for mainstream political parties and opportunities for populist alternatives. Many scholars and writers have argued that the 2008 financial crisis set the stage for populist movements in Europe and other regions. And in the years that followed, Europeans experienced additional economic shocks, including the eurozone public debt crisis, the COVID-19 downturn and post-pandemic inflation.
| Country | Worse off | Better off |
|---|---|---|
| France | 81 | 14 |
| Italy | 79 | 19 |
| U.K. | 79 | 19 |
| Spain | 75 | 20 |
| Greece | 72 | 25 |
| Netherlands | 69 | 27 |
| Germany | 61 | 35 |
| Sweden | 58 | 32 |
| Hungary | 43 | 30 |
| Poland | 31 | 41 |
| 10-country median | 70 | 26 |
More broadly, the rise of an increasingly interconnected global economy in recent decades has created resentments among those who feel left behind by globalization. Often, this group includes many working-class people with less education who in previous decades tended to vote for left-of-center parties but have increasingly turned to the populist right.
All of these economic anxieties have left Europeans pessimistic about the long-term economic future. Across 10 European countries we surveyed in 2024, a median of 70% said that when children in their country grow up, they will be financially worse off than their parents.
This economic pessimism and anxiety has shaken confidence in mainstream parties and the political status quo. And it has been fertile ground for the growth of right-wing populism.
Cultural grievances
In addition to economic frustrations, support for right-wing populism is associated with cultural grievances and reactions to rapid social change.
| Party | Supporters | Nonsupporters |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden Democrats | 64 | 26 |
| PiS (Poland) | 58 | 21 |
| Fidesz (Hungary) | 62 | 27 |
| Reform UK | 52 | 22 |
| Vox (Spain) | 55 | 27 |
| Lega (Italy) | 58 | 31 |
| AfD (Germany) | 59 | 33 |
| Greek Solution | 77 | 52 |
| PVV (Netherlands) | 56 | 31 |
| Brothers of Italy | 53 | 30 |
| National Rally (France) | 57 | 39 |
According to many scholars, including the political scientists Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart, right-wing populism has been fueled by a “cultural backlash” against the progressive social changes that have taken place in high-income countries over the past few decades.
These nations have experienced deepening cultural divides over issues such as women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and racial and ethnic diversity.
In a 2022 survey, we posed a question that captures many of these cultural divisions. Respondents were asked if their country would be better off if it sticks to its traditions and way of life or if it is open to changing them. Overall, Europeans said their nation should embrace change.
However, substantial shares preferred sticking with traditions, and this view was especially common among those who support right-wing populist parties. For example, 64% of Swedes with a favorable view of the Sweden Democrats think their country would be better off keeping its traditions and way of life, compared with 26% among those who rate the party negatively.
| Party | Supporters | Nonsupporters |
|---|---|---|
| Vox (Spain) | 55 | 25 |
| Reform UK | 32 | 9 |
| AfD (Germany) | 32 | 10 |
| PiS (Poland) | 58 | 41 |
| Fidesz (Hungary) | 40 | 23 |
| Greek Solution | 49 | 35 |
| Brothers of Italy | 36 | 22 |
| National Rally (France) | 28 | 14 |
| Lega (Italy) | 38 | 25 |
| Sweden Democrats | 7 | 2 |
Right-wing populists also tend to have a more exclusionary view of national identity. They are particularly likely to say that to truly be a part of their country’s nationality it is very important to speak the country’s language, to share its customs and traditions, and to have been born in the country.
For example, roughly half or more of those with positive views of right-wing populist parties in Spain, Poland and Greece think it is very important to have been born in their country. This view is significantly less common among those who rate these parties negatively.
Right-wing populists also stand out for their views on social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Even though right-wing populists typically say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, they are less likely than others to hold this view in some European countries. Similarly, most tend to support same sex-marriage, but they are less likely than others to support it.
Who supports right-wing populism?
Right-wing populists typically differ from others in their country on a few demographic factors, most notably education.
| Party | More education | Less education |
|---|---|---|
| National Rally (France) | 22 | 43 |
| PVV (Netherlands) | 18 | 38 |
| Reform UK | 26 | 44 |
| Lega (Italy) | 16 | 32 |
| Fidesz (Hungary) | 33 | 47 |
| Brothers of Italy | 31 | 45 |
| Sweden Democrats | 19 | 33 |
| Greek Solution | 16 | 28 |
| PiS (Poland) | 23 | 34 |
| AfD (Germany) | 15 | 23 |
Generally, those with less education hold right-wing populist parties in higher regard than those with more education.
Consider the Netherlands: Roughly four-in-ten people with a secondary education or less gave Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom positive ratings, according to our 2025 survey. Among those with at least some postsecondary education, 18% saw the party favorably.
Still, across levels of educational attainment, no right-wing populist party received majority favorable marks in any of the European countries we surveyed in 2025.
Favorable views of these parties are sometimes related to other demographics such as gender, but we see these differences less frequently.
Where there are gender gaps, men are more supportive of these parties than women. For example, Swedish men tend to support the Sweden Democrats at a higher rate than women.
Other data suggests that right-wing populist party supporters can also be more religious than nonsupporters. For instance, those who say religion plays an important role in their personal life are also often more likely to hold a favorable view of many right-wing populist parties.
How do right-wing populists view democracy?
In a 2023 Pew Research Center survey, we asked respondents in 24 nations whether certain types of governments would be good or bad ways to govern countries. Majorities in every place – including 10 European nations – described representative democracy as a good way of governing their country.
| Party | Supporters | Nonsupporters |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 48 | 25 |
| AfD (Germany) | 33 | 12 |
| Lega (Italy) | 30 | 15 |
| Brothers of Italy | 27 | 14 |
| PVV (Netherlands) | 22 | 9 |
| National Rally (France) | 21 | 8 |
| PiS (Poland) | 31 | 21 |
| Fidesz (Hungary) | 19 | 10 |
| Vox (Spain) | 22 | 14 |
| Greek Solution | 19 | 11 |
| Sweden Democrats | 10 | 3 |
Among both those with favorable views of populist parties and unfavorable views of them, support for representative democracy was generally high.
However, supporters of right-wing populist parties were more likely than others to say that a system in which a strong leader can make decisions without interference from parliament or the courts was a good way of governing their country.
For example, British adults with a favorable view of Reform UK were nearly twice as likely as those with an unfavorable view of the party to say this system would be a good way of governing.
Those who support right-wing populist parties were also more likely to think military rule could be a good way to govern. Although it is worth noting that in most cases, fewer than a third of right-wing populists expressed support for either a strong leader model or military rule.
What about right-wing populism outside of Europe?
Many of the forces that have driven support for right-wing populism in Europe are found in other regions as well. Over the past decade, varieties of right-wing populism have gained strength in nations across the globe.
In 2016, only months after the Brexit vote, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency. In the decade since, his “Make America Great Again” movement has become the dominant force within the Republican Party, which has moved in a populist direction that looks very different from the pre-Trump GOP.
Across Latin America, right-wing populists have found electoral success, built on promises of economic reform and addressing crime rates. In 2019, Jair Bolsonaro and Nayib Bukele ascended to the presidencies of Brazil and El Salvador, respectively. While Bolsonaro failed to secure a second term, Bukele was overwhelmingly reelected. Populist Javier Milei became the president of Argentina in 2023.
In Asia, too, leaders that many have characterized as right-wing populists have won national elections, like Narendra Modi in India, Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines.
In Australia, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has seen a recent revival after an electoral decline in the 2000s.
And Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s religious populism and strongman rhetoric has helped him retain power since 2014.
Acknowledgments
This essay was written by Richard Wike, director of Global Attitudes research; Jonathan Schulman, research associate; Jordan Lippert, research analyst; Sofia Hernandez Ramones, research assistant; and Andrew Prozorovsky, research assistant. Chris Baranovski, lead engineer, editorial content, contributed to web development. Janakee Chavda, associate digital producer, produced the report for web. John Carlo Mandapat, information graphics designer, created the graphics. The essay was checked by Laura Clancy, research analyst; and Julia Armeli, research assistant. It was copy edited by Anna Jackson, editorial specialist; and Mia Hennen, editorial assistant. Jacob Poushter, associate director of Global Attitudes research, provided editorial guidance.